CWinsJim – Page 17 – CLEVELAND WINS !

If it’s Len, I’m OK……

Now I certainly do not know if the Cavs will pick Alex Len with the first pick in the NBA draft tomorrow night. In fact, I don’t even know if the Cavs will have the first pick in tomorrow’s draft. But I do know one thing, Chris Grant has shown me a great deal of skill and courage in his last two drafts and I have confidence. Although it is odd to think of anyone at ESPN who would have anything nice to say about anything related to the Cavs, Chad Ford agrees. He has been very clear that he considers Grant a top GM and makes good trades and draft picks. He has done nothing to shake my belief in him during this rebuilding process including hiring Byron Scott and rehiring Mike Brown. So, if the Cavs pick Alex Len with the first pick in this year’s NBA draft, I am just fine. I won’t be screaming at the TV or acting like the world has just ended. I will be content in knowing that the person making that decision has done a ton more research and has a good track record of finding talent. I will be supportive and root for him to succeed.

That all being said, I happen to like Len as the first pick in this draft. The argument against him is his lack of intensity/toughness and his lack of a dynamic skill that transcends. Noel, another very likely first pick, has the dynamic skill of shot blocking and lightning quick hands on defense. If he can get bigger, he should be a defensive force. But Len already has decent size at 7’1″ and a nearly 7’4″ wingspan at 255 pounds. He is still very quick at that weight and could add more without losing quickness based on his broader shoulders. His hands are not as dynamic on the defensive end but they are very soft for catching lobs and passes. Also, I was very impressed by the video I watched showing his foot quickness and lateral movement on defense. He could actually pick up the guard on a pick and roll and stay in front reasonably well.

Len finishes strong despite his knock of not enough toughness. He has an explosive leap and returns the ball in a dunk after a rebound very quickly. An essential trait for an NBA big. Some big men, even 7 footers, play below the rim. Len is not one of them. He plays above the rim and enjoys it up there (also important in the NBA). Like many “Euro” bigs, he has good form on his jump shot and releases from a high point. Not easy to block. His jump shot is not polished at this point, but the fundamentals are there and he can easily develop the ability to receive the pick and pop. He already has the hands and ability to finish the pick and roll.

Playing with his back to the basket is not his strong suit at this point but he will have Potapenko and Ilgauskas to help him with that and the adjustment to the NBA. Another skill that can be improved over time with hard work. He does have the hands and leaping ability to develop some “go to” back to the basket moves such as a jump hook. Right now he almost exclusively goes over his left shoulder and that will need to change. NBA defenders will cover that very easily unless he can go both ways.

His shot blocking ability is already decent, but not elite. That is another knock on him vs Noel who has that elite ability. However, if he is already good at shot blocking and plays above the rim, this is another skill that can be developed. Probably all of these things that need to develop are reasons NBA analysts are not as high on Len as the Cavs might be. However, another good trait is that Len recognizes his need to develop and improve. His interviews have clearly indicated his desire to improve and his recognition that he can get much better. Not to mention his ability to adopt an entirely new language and seemingly master it so quickly.

Because of his skills that can be developed, I feel that he has sufficient upside to be a top NBA pick. In almost any other year, he would not be considered at the top pick. But this is one year where even experts strongly disagree about who the Cavs should take. In fact, I do not remember any recent year where so many different players have been tabbed as the best pick in this draft. If you ask six experts, you might even get six different players. That is why the Cavs have and should consider trading out of the pick but also why it is unlikely they will be able to trade it.

So CG, if you really feel that Alex Len is the best player in this draft, be my guest. I will not even try to object. But the NBA and I will be watching very closely to see if this draft defines you as the top GM I think you are or as just another clown in the circus. As a Cavs fan, I’ll be rooting for ya…..

Tribe Starting to Settle Down A Bit

Although the past two Indian games have not been things of beauty. they have been wins. When you are struggling as much as the Tribe, you will take wins whenever you can get them.

I do like the quality of the at bats now and have more confidence in our hitting. The starting pitching has also been better with cracks remaining in the Cleveland bullpen. The team has remained aggressive and the baserunning better despite some runners being thrown out. So, even though I do not see dramatic improvement leading to the wins, I can see signs of the team beginning to relax and become productive again.

The home stand is critical to see if the Indians can sustain some momentum or begin to falter again. I am cautiously optimistic that this is the beginning of a much better stretch of baseball for the Tribe. What do you think?

Expect to see McLemore linked to Cavs

Cavs and McLemore Rumors will abound

This post is one of more frequent short posts on www.clevelandwins.com that you will see going forward. Although I favor longer reasoned posts, this format allows me to throw an opinion out there for the readers to think about.

Chris Grant is a very astute player of the smoke screen game by not allowing the Cavs full opinion to be known outside of the confines of the Q offices. This skill will be particularly useful this year when no one dominant player seems to be available at pick #1. Even if the Cavs hold Nerlens Noel near to their hearts, they would be wise to allow some reporter types to catch wind of the fact that they are seriously considering Ben McLemore.

Right now the only major mock draft that has the Cavs taking McLemore is www.nbadraft.net. Personally, I think the odds that the Cavs actually take McLemore are far greater than the percentage of draft mocks predicting it. Also, and I might be wrong on this, I think that more teams will pick up the phone and call the Cavs about the first pick if they think Cleveland is preparing to take the Kansas shooting guard. The health questions surrounding Noel and Len are substantial going into the draft. Even if a team was really sold on Noel, they would think twice about pitching a deal to the Cavs because of the cloud over his immediate future. The same cannot be said about McLemore who is not suffering major health issues and is looked upon as a possible 20 PPG scorer in the NBA.

The real beauty of this is that, no matter which player might be desired by another lottery team, it is best if the Cavs keep them guessing as long as possible. That will maximize the possibility of some team falling in love with one of them and come to the Cavs offering gifts. Knowing the history of the NBA draft, my guess is that the Cavs will be forced to keep the pick anyway and use it. In fact, that might even be their preference. If they keep the pick, five names will seem to move in and out of favor with the Cavs. Those players are Noel, McLemore, Len, Porter and Oladipo. Of those five, Noel and McLemore will be mentioned most often and are the most realistic pics.

I wouldn’t want to bet on Grant’s move in this situation. Despite the vast majority opinion picking Noel for the Cavs, keep an eye on McLemore going forward. Even if a smokescreen, his name will start popping up more and more in my opinion.

To Cavs: Trade Dion Waiters at your peril !

Cavs have difficult decisions this off-season

There are many options that the Cleveland Cavs GM Chris Grant has this off-season and some difficult decisions. There has been a stated desire to add some veteran help for this team and get them playoff ready in 2013-14. Grant has consistently shown a preference to add talent via the draft and, if needed, trades. Either because of a perceived inability of Cleveland to attract free agents or simply Grant’s preference, most have speculated that the Cavs will be forced to add that veteran help by a trade. Our pieces to trade are certainly limited and, in speculation, Dion Waiters name has surfaced from time to time.

My thoughts on this possibility are clear. Trade Dion Waiters at your peril. I say this knowing that, except for Kyrie Irving, there are no untouchable players on the current Cavs team. So, if the trade were clearly tilted in our favor, Dion could be included. My warning is a result of my visual analysis of Waiters, the statistics he compiled this year compared to other rookies, and what I have heard about Waiters this off-season. I think that Waiters has the ability and the toughness to be a dynamic All-Star talent in the years to come. It might not be next year, but I believe it will happen soon. At first I kind of scoffed at the speculation that Waiters looked a bit like a young Dwayne Wade. I now think that comparison is at least possible to discuss if still unlikely.

As I watched Waiters last year, he came in out of shape to the Summer League and then was injured. Although this was mostly his fault, it set him back considerably. As the season started, he was in fairly good shape but was still behind. As the season progressed, when healthy, he showed clearly why he was the fourth pick in the draft and deserved to be the fourth pick. His offensive game is dynamic and almost no single defender can stay in front of him off the dribble. That places enormous pressure on the defense and makes him a force even before he has refined his game. He forced too many drives last year looking for fouls but seemed to learn that the better approach was finding a way to avoid the defense and make the shot. I think he did get some “rookie” treatment last year on his drives but that should even out as he proves his ability to the officials.

Although Waiters was a bit prone to turnovers in his rookie year, he showed an excellent handle and can certainly provide point guard minutes as a backup to Kyrie if we do not obtain a high level back-up point guard. Dion will always have some questions about his three point shooting, but I certainly think it will develop over 31% and will likely end up around 38% if he works hard. As long as he realizes that the three point shot is not the key part of his offensive skill set, he will only get better as an offensive player. He may very well turn out to be the most accomplished offensive player of the 2012 draft class and may be already.

Something not really discussed when talking about Waiters is his defensive potential. In the few times he really put the effort needed on the defensive end, he was a real pest with a decent ability to steal the ball and disrupt the offense. In fact, as I analyze his lateral quickness, I think he has all the tools to be an excellent defender. The key to defense, as everyone knows, is consistent effort and focus. Most rookies don’t have the mindset to defend as hard as they play offense. Dion, unfortunately, fell into that category. But he possesses the toughness, quick hands, solid frame and lateral quickness to be a good defender. I believe that, under Mike Brown, he will begin to show the focus to be a top defender. If so, his stature as a pro will rise accordingly.

In addition to my observations above, Tristan Thompson recently related that Waiters was working extremely hard this off season. I would be shocked if he came into camp out of shape this year. In fact, I expect him to be ready to have an immediate impact on the Cavs next year. One far in excess of his impact last year. If Thompson was being completely honest, I can’t wait to see Dion this summer.

When I correlate my observations with the statistics of the top rookies last year, Waiters compares very favorably despite his injuries and slow start. Dion had the absolutely best points per game average when his points were extended out to a 36 minutes per game total. As I looked over the stats of the top rookies from last year, here is what I found:

Key stats per game calculated to 36 minutes:

Player Points Assists Turnovers Rebounds Steals
Waiters 18.3 3.8 2.5 3.1 1.2
Lillard 17.8 6.0 2.8 2.9 0.8
Davis 16.9 1.2 1.7 10.2 1.5
Beal 16.1 2.8 1.9 4.4 1.0
Kidd-Gilcrist 12.5 2.1 1.8 8.1 1.0
Barnes 13.1 1.7 1.8 5.8 0.9
Drummond 13.8 0.9 1.7 13.2 1.7
Zeller 10.8 1.7 1.7 7.8 0.6

As you can see, there is more than idle speculation to support Waiters future potential. The stats also imply that Dion does play like a true “combo guard” as some of his stats are closer to Lillard than anyone else on the list. These numbers were generated despite the challenges faced by Waiters during his first year. I absolutely want to see what Dion can become as a Cavalier and not as an ex-Cavalier. The Cavs trade Dion Waiters at their peril. I would hate to be Chris Grant during the years going forward watching Waiters emerge as a star for another team.

What’s Wrong With the Tribe ?

Is "everything" an acceptable answer? — Is “everything” an acceptable answer?

Right now the panic and visions of 2011 and 2012 are swirling through all Tribe fan’s heads. That is understandable for a traumatized fan base and a struggling franchise. I have previously posted that THIS Cleveland Indians team is worthy of your support. I see absolutely NO reason to change that stance and this post is the real “reality check” for Indian fans.

It is very easy and trite to say “Here we go again” as the team struggles and Don Kelly (a .190 hitter) crushes a three run homer off Justin Masterson to give the Tigers a 4-1 lead. Now there is a very high percentage chance that the Tigers will sweep from the Tribe and we will be fading away 2 games below .500. Others will tell me “Well, there is your reality check. We stink.” I will tell you that, as long as we play this bad, you will look like a genius and I will look like an idiot. When the team begins to move forward again, you will be no where to be found with your “reality” check and I will be enjoying baseball again. I prefer enjoying baseball.

I am not blind to the obvious about this version of the Cleveland Indians. From the very early days in Spring Training when all were praising the virtues of our bullpen, I was telling you cracks are developing in that bullpen. Unfortunately, the crack is now a hole and we need to be creative about patching it up. Most fans certainly knew that Mark Reynolds was not a reliable third baseman and we were secretly hoping he would never play there. We also knew that our starting pitching was a serious question mark and that counting on Ubaldo is like playing Vegas. We all felt the team would hit fairly well and be able to score runs but that Nick Swisher was not a “savior” level player to carry us to the promised land. All of these things are true and I do not support this team through rose colored glasses.

But when even solid and lifelong Tribe fans begin to question the quality of this team compared to the 2011 and 2012 versions and are questioning whether or not Francona is as good a manager as we thought he would be, it is clearly a traumatized fan base squealing out again in pain. I am in pain as well and see no end in sight to the pain. But that is the beauty of baseball. Teams will look lost for games at a time (as the Indians certainly do now), and suddenly for no apparent reason will begin to play solid again. For an individual hitter, maybe it means a bloop hit they didn’t expect to get. Or a pitcher makes a bad pitch with the bases loaded and the batter pops up instead of slamming a homer. Maybe the other team gets sloppy and walks guys, makes an error, and you bloop one in to score two. Maybe it is just luck. But, as those things start to happen again and they always do, the team relaxes and things start to fit together. Instead of the dribbler being thrown away by your defense, he throws a seed to the first baseman to get the out. Two bloops are followed by a blast and you are up 3-0. A starting pitcher steps up and throws a 3 hit shutout and you win 2-0. Next thing you know, as Manager Brown says “You call that a winning streak.”

Baseball, more than other “physical” team sport, is a game that relies on all pieces of the team to either complement each other or for one piece to “carry” the other ones. Unless either hitting or starting pitching is “smoking hot”, the team will not win unless defense and bullpen pitching is exceptional and some good fortune comes their way. Baseball is a team skill game that cannot be compensated for by brute force. Football, hockey, and even basketball can be influenced by physical play. Therefore when you get mad or frustrated you can at least pancake a guy into the ground, battle for rebounds and commit hard clean fouls, or slam a guy into the boards and rattle his chain. All of these things can clearly influence a game because you can do them more than once. In baseball, when you get mad and play frustrated, you often fail at the plate, on the mound, or in the field. The key is to relax and to let your personal skill take over. Do something you have done for your whole life with confidence and a blind eye to failure. Don’t try to do too much, stay within yourself and rely on your teammates to keep things going if you have a single instead of a home run. This is ABSOLUTELY easy to talk about and difficult to do. That is why team meetings about these types of things often don’t work. The only way they work is if the team is more relaxed after the meeting than they were before.

That is also where fans come into play. I would argue that a great enthusiastic crowd at a baseball game that comes with positive instead of negative energy will relax a baseball team. If the team comes home to boos and negative chatter and empty seats, we will be now another component of the team to be dysfunctional. I don’t imply by that the team will respond with a winning streak simply because fans show up and have positive energy. But to give up an entire season and all the money spent (FINALLY) by the ownership before the season is even half way gone makes absolutely no sense. The Indians now are 2 games below .500 as I write this and we have just lost the game to Detroit. That is not exactly like being 15 games below .500 and out of the race. The reality check is that, if we give up on a vastly superior team with a chance to sustain some winning for a few years this early, we are reacting emotionally and acting like we don’t understand baseball. I have strongly supported the Cleveland fans as knowledgeable and insightful fans. I think we will show that when the team finally comes home. I certainly will do that and I hope you will too.

A team is never as bad as they are when they are losing in bunches and never as good as they are when they are winning in bunches. The 2013 Cleveland Indians have shown both and are still not out of the race by a long shot. They are probably a .540 – .560 team with an outside chance to make the playoffs. As time goes on, we will see that develop and they will be much more fun to watch and support. Right now, it is downright sickening.