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December 20th Cavalier Scribbles – More Work To Do

I looked at the Cavaliers as a whole about a month ago and I, unfortunately, still see some of the same weaknesses that I noticed before. However, due to his head injury, the return of Mike Miller was delayed and the chance to make the rotation changes that should elevate the team were then delayed. The movement of Mike Miller to the starting lineup was the first of a series of moves that I think will improve the Cavs rotation short term and even more long term. Last night was a glimpse of that. I went into a little more detail on my scribbles of November 23rd, please look at that again if you would like more context.

The Cavaliers would benefit greatly in my view from a rotation that starts with Kyrie, Miller, LeBron, Love, and TT. I know that is a bit of an undersized lineup, but it makes the most sense to start games. The “Big Three” and knockdown shooter Miller provide plenty of offensive firepower to start games. TT is a much better complementary player to that group because he cleans up misses and, frankly, plays better defense than either Love or Varejao. It is no accident that he is often in the lineup at the end of games. So that is one change I am still waiting for David Blatt to make. He is such a heady coach don’t be surprised if this change comes sooner than later.

The rotation for the Cavs should be Marion to spot LeBron and, at times based on defensive needs, Miller or Love. The most important thing he could do would be to give LeBron the rest he needs over the course of the season. Delly to backup Kyrie, of course, and run the offense with Dion. Waiters to come in for Miller and Andy to spell Love across the quarter and into the second. To bad for TT but he is the youngest big. He can extend through the first if needed. I think Jones should be the 10th man in the rotation to come in at SF and move Marion to the 4 when TT needs to come out or the offense needs a kick.

I don’t see a role for anyone else off the bench until injuries dictate that. I do like Harris for sure and am wondering about Haywood?? He obviously has very little or nothing left in the tank to not be used as an occasional rim protector. We don’t see him in practice and don’t know the true story here about his recovery from the injury. If he has anything left, then you will probably see him as a “surprise” rotation addition in short stretches when we play teams with great bigs such as we will see Sunday against Memphis. If he has nothing, then he is only here to be used as a trade chip in this off-season. A valuable role for sure but I would like to see more. Amundson is also someone who can get spot time depending on fouls and the like, but he also is undersized.

I agree 100% with LeBron when he says this existing team can make a strong run to win it all (code word “ultimate goal”) if they buy in and learn to play as a team and trust each other. Almost no media person or blogger believes that but I do. That being said, it is quite obvious that wing defense and lack of size hurts the Cavs often and begs the question of whether we need to make a substantial change. My point here is one of caution. This Cavs team is far from done growing together. They still are lazy at times. They still do not value their own words and fight to compete on defense as they know they must. The lapses are often large and long causing games that would otherwise be a blowout to be a grind to the end or loss. Better effort throughout would actually SAVE energy for the players in the final analysis. They would have more nights to sit out entire fourth quarters and conserve energy. I hope they realize that soon because the current approach is going to wear them out and make injury more likely.

The other caution is my continuous reprise to Trade Dion Waiters At Your Peril. I know that many say he “can’t fit in” or is a “bad fit”. I think that is very far from the truth. He is actually a perfect fit on this team if he begins to truly understand his role and embrace it. Dion has the potential, with determination, to be an excellent defender. His potential is far beyond Kyrie’s because of his ability to play above the rim and his quickness. But, as we have seen, Dion rarely uses that talent to it’s fullest because he saves it for the offensive end. This is the exact same thing Kyrie did until this year. Plus, on the offensive side, he still would be the most talented scorer of the rotation players and be the second option often as starters sub out or in. So he will get his chances on the offensive end if he is patient and can knockdown shots. Dion, with the right attitude and mix of players, can have 14-18 points off the bench and 6 assists per game. Playing with Andy will give him a viable pick and roll player who is the best player we have for that kind of 2 man action. Dion can thrive in that role if he simply gets past himself and understands what he must do.

And that is the reason that so many say he “can’t fit”. Many believe that Dion is a malcontent that can’t be controlled. I think if you read the Brendan Bowers article on Dion, you will understand that isn’t necessarily the case. Dion comes from a rough place and a rough background. He is emotional but thoughtful and does care about winning. He had hoped it would be easier with LeBron because of open looks. What he didn’t plan for is his usual early season struggles offensively and an inability to knock down shots as he did near the end of last year. I ask that everyone step back a bit from the “Dion must go” group and give him more of a chance to find himself. I think that, given time, he can do that.

I will say this, if the Cavs decide to use their last viable player trade chip (Waiters) in a deal, it had better be a blockbuster for the team. Not a Kosta Koufus or similar talent. If they are going to sell out for a rim protector, it had better be a nasty one who is athletic (like we played last night – Plumlee). A soft rim protector with limited athleticism just won’t do if we want to advance. Tyler Zeller, while not really a rim protector, would have helped just as much because he is athletic and 7 foot. I still regret we needed to give him up, but I know we did.

Yes, the Cavs have a ways to go for sure. And Windbag (eh Sorry I mean Windhorst – disrespectful) tried to bring that home today. But I think with the right rotation and time to grow, we still have a championship team as currently constituted. The time to tweak the team might be in the off-season, but I know that won’t be the case. We will make a deal and maybe soon. I just hope it is the right one.

Were You Surprised by Johnny Manziel’s Performance ??

I think the Browns and their fans were both faced firmly with the realization that Brian Hoyer, despite his local roots, was a big reason why the playoffs were slipping away. He has some leadership skills and talent for sure but his consistency was nowhere to be found. Hoyer showed that he was a “rhythm” quarterback. When he hit some throws and especially when they were in the hurry up offense, he would keep doing well and seem to make high quality throws. If the team or he hit a skid, he seemed to fight to find that rhythm and for the final 3 weeks he never found it.

That is why I called that the time was right for Manziel prior to the Colts game. However, I was never under the delusion that Manziel had a high chance of success. It is just that we needed a change and I had hoped that sitting on the bench all of those weeks might have helped him prepare. I guess I was wrong about that but I was hoping.

I want to reprise my “draft analysis” of the Johnny Manziel pick to clarify that I knew what we were up against from the beginning with “Johnny Football”. I suspect that many of my readers knew as well. Here it is:

“Johnny Manziel, QB:

By some projections, Manziel was the best QB in the draft. He is also a lightning rod for controversy, scrutiny and another potential “black eye” for the city of Cleveland and it’s sports teams. If you wanted Manziel because he finally “puts Cleveland on the map”, you are in for a rude awakening. He will only put us “on the map” if he succeeds and the Browns win football games. That would have happened anyway if this storied franchise began to win and contend for titles. If he fails (which is a strong possibility), he will put Cleveland “on the map” again for late night jokes and ridicule. So watch what you wish for. It might not be what you think.

That being said, if the multiple flaws translatable to the NFL that Manziel possesses are conquered or controlled, his good traits could make this a draft to remember for our lifetime. He has a quick release, enough arm strength to function at the pro level, enough accuracy on short/intermediate throws to be successful, and an uncanny ability to sense pressure and escape it. Those traits are good a good fit with our scheme and he has enough talent to pull it off. If it weren’t for all of those critical talent/character flaws in his game, his chance of boom would be better than bust. I will outline the flaws in depth in a separate analysis but by way of summary here they are: 1) A sense he needs to escape when he doesn’t and then run 2) Inability to go through full progressions with his reads 3) Predictable methods of pocket escape that places his offensive tackles in “no win” scenarios 4) Questionable accuracy on deep throws 5) Instincts to run before finding open receivers 6) No demonstrated ability to slide and step up in the pocket to throw 7) No demonstrated ability to command the game from behind center – strictly shotgun/pistol 8) Virtually never pitching or handing the ball off on read options 9) No demonstrated ball skills to handle play-action sets and create deception without the ball 10) Serious questions about work ethic, sense of entitlement, ego getting in the way of progress, and willingness to be a student of the game (knowing playbook better than anyone, studying game film of opponent, etc.). I’ll stop there and save the rest for later. As a Brown’s fan, I am hopeful but far away from crowning “Johnny Football” as the savior of Cleveland sports.”

Here is my full draft analysis: Browns Draft Analysis

It is interesting to look back at what I thought and how things are working out thus far. But I think the Manziel analysis clearly pointed out nearly everything you have seen from Manziel since he became a Brown, during his first start, and the “rumors” of poor preparation being circulated since his start. My point here is that this abysmal initial failure by Manziel should have been predicted by his characteristics before we drafted him. I was hoping he had fixed at least some but I saw no real evidence of that during the game. God help the Browns if he had started the season as our quarterback. I think it is safe to say we probably never sniff the playoffs if that had happened. At least now, after 13 games on the bench, there is some hope going forward.

My current opinion of Manziel has not changed. The 10 flaws pointed out were all in evidence since his arrival and in the Bengals game. However, I said then and will say now, if he can overcome these multiple flaws and learn from his mistakes, we have a chance to see a good quality and exciting quarterback for many years. I happen to think it is CRITICAL for the Browns to do well and hopefully win at least 1 out of their last 2 games. The fans and the organization cannot have another off-season of turmoil and change. Winning is only bred by winning and that is what the Browns must do. Losing to improve draft order is a worthless hope and an even more worthless goal.

So I happen to think that Manziel will show a significant improvement this week. The time on the bench and the utter humiliation suffered against Cincinnati is bound to wake him up a bit. He is not a dummy. He understands the concept of heroic legacy versus comical bust. If he does “bust out” as his flaws would suggest, he will be more than a forgettable bust. He will be a historic bust. I really think that might be just the motivation Johnny needs to improve.

If he uses his gifts that are transferrable to NFL play, he has a chance (if only a small one) to be “Johnny Football” again. I hope that is possible because I want to believe in him. I want the Browns to succeed. Needing to replace Manziel before he really gets a solid chance seems like a bad strategy. So I will root for him and hope we see a “new” Johnny Manziel on Sunday. And, even more importantly, I hope we see a new Browns team against the Panthers. The one that played against Cincinnati must be dead and buried forever.

Browns vs Colts: Drama Couldn’t Be Higher

Talk about a game bigger than “the game” this weeks Browns/Colts matchup certainly fits that bill. There will be many things to watch and look for in this game and here are just a few:

1) Can the Browns prove on their home field that they deserve to reach the playoffs in 2014? This game really defines that question in a clearer way than any other event on the field this year. The Colts are clearly a playoff team. They have the best young quarterback in the game and possibly the best quarterback in the game. It is unlikely that they will look past the 7-5 Browns. This is a real test of the Browns talent and toughness. Something Mike Pettine has stressed from the start is the need to develop a team with both mental and physical toughness. Beating the Colts after a tough loss to Buffalo would provide a resounding “yes” answer to the question of whether they embody that toughness.

2) Can Brian Hoyer simultaneously save his job and save the Brown’s season? Everyone will be focused on the first part of this question I am afraid but I will be focused on the second part. The 2014 Browns have proven better than any Browns team I can remember since 1999 that they are able to stare adversity in the face and overcome it. They now own the all time NFL record for a visiting team comeback in a game. Can we actually fathom that fact? No team in the HISTORY of the NFL has come back from that deficit on the opposing teams field. Hoyer, with a winning performance today, has a chance to solidify not only a chance at the playoffs but a chance for this Browns team to be different than any since 1999. He will also solidify his position as the starting quarterback for the Browns in 2014 and make a great case to be a starter beyond 2014. The sad thing is that this might be in another city but so it is in the tough NFL.

3) Can Brian Hoyer secure his family’s financial future by playing like a champion and winning an improbable game? This is not the question most Browns fans will be focused on, but it is an intriguing question. If Hoyer fails in this game, he has almost certainly lost his starting job for the rest of this season. He might sneak out one more game but that would likely be all. Johnny Manziel will finally become the focal point of the Browns quest to become a playoff team in the future and Hoyer will simply drop off the map. The chance of Hoyer getting a big contract after that will be slim to none. Even though he might command a decent raise, the amount of guaranteed money will be dramatically less. Make no mistake about it, this is a critical game for Hoyer personally and professionally.

4) Can the Browns defense prove once and for all that they can play with the “big boys”? This is a dramatic test for them because they are facing such a dynamic triple threat quarterback. Luck is an underrated runner and a load to bring down. In addition, he has great intelligence and instincts as a quarterback. They have not faced this type of quarterback for many weeks. Andy Dalton is, quite frankly, a joke of a quarterback despite his yearly salary so don’t put him in that class. Matt Ryan is close to that caliber but the team around him is not. It has been since week 6 and Roethlisberger that the defense has faced a real threat at the quarterback position.

5) Can the Browns actually find out what it is like to play meaningful games in December? This game would be a huge step in the development of the Browns franchise going forward. They need to prove to themselves, much more than anyone else, that they belong in the playoff conversation until the end of the year. This game will likely make that possible and give the organization and the fans a needed boost.

We all will be glued to the TV or the field watching this play out. It is another test for Cleveland in it’s ascendance as a city and sports relevancy. If the Browns can do anything close to what the Buckeye’s did last night, we all will have a great week ahead. GO BROWNS !!!

The Time for Johnny Manziel Is Now !!

I stand as one of the most persistent Brian Hoyer supporters because he gave us the best chance to win. I believed that before and I still feel I was absolutely correct. I do not believe that now.

I have been at nearly every home game since the Browns have come back to the NFL. I saw the personal dismantling of a fantastic quarterback prospect who was playing on a “minor league” team in the NFL. He was dismantled emotionally, eventually dismantled physically by the repeated beatings he took, and then “booed” out of town. The fans forgot what a real talent he was and how he was forced to play before he was ready.

I am not suggesting that the current Browns team is even remotely similar to that embarrassing 1999 team. But Manziel and Couch both had little need to read defenses or go through progressions in their college careers. Manziel simply wasn’t ready and we had a quarterback ready that was very successful in his brief time on the 2013 Browns team. He deserved a chance to prove we could win with him. And win we have. The best start for the Browns since we have been back and we took a 7-4 record into what I knew would be a tough game.

However, as the Browns have become increasingly stagnant offensively, it became clear that the league has caught up with Brian Hoyer and the Browns. The matchup this week was especially troublesome considering it would be tough to run and the pass rush is solid. I knew Hoyer might struggle as he has for most of the time over the past several weeks. If he had been able to get us another win, I would have been supporting him continuing as the Browns quarterback. The reason would have been simple. The Browns were winning and winning is all that counts. Finding out if Manziel is the quarterback of the future is a sidebar that I care little about. Winning this year is the only thing that matters. Why??? Because the Browns need to start winning in order to advance as a team. No other statistic matters.

Early in the second half of the game with the Bills, I think the odds switched. And in my opinion, the odds are switched permanently. Johnny Manziel now gives the Browns the best chance to win. He has paid his dues as the backup and has had a chance to learn the offense and improve his ability to read defenses and go through progressions. Although, as I confidently say this, Manziel still admitted in his post game interview that his greatest concern was calling the plays correctly. He admitted that the veterans helped him with that during his time in the game. Although that sounds great that the veterans helped, I just wish they didn’t have to help Manziel by now. The only saving grace for Manziel is that he will have (I hope) a week to prepare as the starter. That will help.

Manziel will bring a layer of difficulty for the opposing defensive coordinators who don’t know exactly how to defend him yet. That will potentially divert the attention of the defenders from their assignments to Manziel. That can give the Browns an edge.

The obvious fact that Manziel can buy time and throw on the run will help when we face the tougher pass rush teams. But I think it will help against the teams with weaker pass rushes even more. The Colts and Bengals are not in the elite class of defensive front sevens. Not bad for sure, but not elite. I think that extra time to think and read will help Manziel in those games. Plus, his real threat to run might hold some linebackers from going as deep into their drops. Leaving the middle more open for throws.

Kyle Shanahan will be able to make changes in the playbook that might suit Manziel’s strengths and they will be wrinkles not seen thus far. I think we will see a more creative offense with Manziel at the helm.

I simply feel that Manziel will give us the best chance to win now. I am sad for Hoyer but I have no emotional attachment. He had his chance and has no one to blame but himself. His play left the door open and I believe it is time for Manziel to run though it. If Pettine gives him the chance, I think we will see both his strengths and weaknesses. It won’t be all pretty and exciting as Pollyanna Manziel supporter Chuck Booms believes, but it won’t be as stagnant and predictable as we have come to hate under Hoyer.

November 30th Cavalier Scribbles – The Defensive Rotations Are Much Improved

The Cavaliers have obviously had some better results of late and we are all happy to see that finally occur. The frequent refrain of the Cavs “big three” is that we need to use defense to generate our up tempo offense. The greatest news from all of these declarations is that they are actually starting to back up them up!

I have been closely observing the Cavalier defensive rotations and now see noticeable improvements that are beginning to pay dividends. The key to the overall defensive scheme is that the individual players are taking pride in defensing their opponents one on one. The defensive stances have been lower and the lateral movement of the feet better. Best example of this is the play of Kyrie Irving. Bringing all that he learned from USA basketball to the Cavs, he is fiercely defending his man, anticipating and flying over the top of picks, and following to defend when he does get beat. He is taking every defensive challenge seriously now and even has won some tough battles with bigs on switches that planned to post him up.

I happen to know that there is some skepticism out there based on Kyrie’s somewhat selfish approach to play over his first three seasons. But I am convinced that those who still cling to that ancient belief have not been watching or only watching when he has his brief reversions to past practices. (Pounding the ball, not defending, and failing to play within the flow of the offense)

The second most important principle that is beginning to take hold is to “recapture” your man after a switched pick whenever possible as long as it doesn’t break down the defense. Over the past 3 years and early this year, the Cavalier’s have been caught in very poor mismatches by blindly switching picks and not even trying to recapture. The defensive difficulties caused when caught in multiple mismatches is obvious but what is not obvious is that this is caused by not trusting that your teammates know how to rotate behind you. Now the Cavs are looking actively to recapture their men and allow a “switch back” which can often require multiple rotations behind to allow that to happen without a breakdown. I have seen some breakdowns or near breakdowns from this still but It is becoming less over the past three games.

That brings us to the third defensive improvement, which is actually related to the other two. The Cavs are much improved in their rotations down low when all the chaos occurs in front of them caused by picks and switch backs. It is clear from my direct observations that the bigs are looking to rotate and cover when a breakdown occurs on top. In that past, they simply looked clueless and never rotated or rotated late. Again, there are still breakdowns in this area and every game has them, but they are far fewer than earlier this year and for the three years prior.

The key to all of this is EFFORT !!!! It takes effort to do all these switches and recaptures and rotations and contesting shots. The second key is actually knowing what is expected. That seems to be coming along slowly. The third key is communication. That seems to be better also but still not where it needs to be. The fourth key is anticipation. I now see rotations beginning before they are actually needed and players are starting to look where they need to go. The final key, of course, is trust. The trust factor in the Cavs defense is building and, as they have more success, I think it will become natural to trust their teammates.

These are huge steps and override any factors such as “rim protectors” and lack of production from the bench. That is because the bench is part of this transformation. If they don’t buy in and become a part of the defensive transformation, the team’s efforts will fail. My observations suggest that the starters and bench have both improved defensively. Continuing this going forward will be essential for the Cavs to become a dominant team instead of a streaky one.