Cavaliers – Page 11 – CLEVELAND WINS !

Expect to see McLemore linked to Cavs

Cavs and McLemore Rumors will abound

This post is one of more frequent short posts on www.clevelandwins.com that you will see going forward. Although I favor longer reasoned posts, this format allows me to throw an opinion out there for the readers to think about.

Chris Grant is a very astute player of the smoke screen game by not allowing the Cavs full opinion to be known outside of the confines of the Q offices. This skill will be particularly useful this year when no one dominant player seems to be available at pick #1. Even if the Cavs hold Nerlens Noel near to their hearts, they would be wise to allow some reporter types to catch wind of the fact that they are seriously considering Ben McLemore.

Right now the only major mock draft that has the Cavs taking McLemore is www.nbadraft.net. Personally, I think the odds that the Cavs actually take McLemore are far greater than the percentage of draft mocks predicting it. Also, and I might be wrong on this, I think that more teams will pick up the phone and call the Cavs about the first pick if they think Cleveland is preparing to take the Kansas shooting guard. The health questions surrounding Noel and Len are substantial going into the draft. Even if a team was really sold on Noel, they would think twice about pitching a deal to the Cavs because of the cloud over his immediate future. The same cannot be said about McLemore who is not suffering major health issues and is looked upon as a possible 20 PPG scorer in the NBA.

The real beauty of this is that, no matter which player might be desired by another lottery team, it is best if the Cavs keep them guessing as long as possible. That will maximize the possibility of some team falling in love with one of them and come to the Cavs offering gifts. Knowing the history of the NBA draft, my guess is that the Cavs will be forced to keep the pick anyway and use it. In fact, that might even be their preference. If they keep the pick, five names will seem to move in and out of favor with the Cavs. Those players are Noel, McLemore, Len, Porter and Oladipo. Of those five, Noel and McLemore will be mentioned most often and are the most realistic pics.

I wouldn’t want to bet on Grant’s move in this situation. Despite the vast majority opinion picking Noel for the Cavs, keep an eye on McLemore going forward. Even if a smokescreen, his name will start popping up more and more in my opinion.

To Cavs: Trade Dion Waiters at your peril !

Cavs have difficult decisions this off-season

There are many options that the Cleveland Cavs GM Chris Grant has this off-season and some difficult decisions. There has been a stated desire to add some veteran help for this team and get them playoff ready in 2013-14. Grant has consistently shown a preference to add talent via the draft and, if needed, trades. Either because of a perceived inability of Cleveland to attract free agents or simply Grant’s preference, most have speculated that the Cavs will be forced to add that veteran help by a trade. Our pieces to trade are certainly limited and, in speculation, Dion Waiters name has surfaced from time to time.

My thoughts on this possibility are clear. Trade Dion Waiters at your peril. I say this knowing that, except for Kyrie Irving, there are no untouchable players on the current Cavs team. So, if the trade were clearly tilted in our favor, Dion could be included. My warning is a result of my visual analysis of Waiters, the statistics he compiled this year compared to other rookies, and what I have heard about Waiters this off-season. I think that Waiters has the ability and the toughness to be a dynamic All-Star talent in the years to come. It might not be next year, but I believe it will happen soon. At first I kind of scoffed at the speculation that Waiters looked a bit like a young Dwayne Wade. I now think that comparison is at least possible to discuss if still unlikely.

As I watched Waiters last year, he came in out of shape to the Summer League and then was injured. Although this was mostly his fault, it set him back considerably. As the season started, he was in fairly good shape but was still behind. As the season progressed, when healthy, he showed clearly why he was the fourth pick in the draft and deserved to be the fourth pick. His offensive game is dynamic and almost no single defender can stay in front of him off the dribble. That places enormous pressure on the defense and makes him a force even before he has refined his game. He forced too many drives last year looking for fouls but seemed to learn that the better approach was finding a way to avoid the defense and make the shot. I think he did get some “rookie” treatment last year on his drives but that should even out as he proves his ability to the officials.

Although Waiters was a bit prone to turnovers in his rookie year, he showed an excellent handle and can certainly provide point guard minutes as a backup to Kyrie if we do not obtain a high level back-up point guard. Dion will always have some questions about his three point shooting, but I certainly think it will develop over 31% and will likely end up around 38% if he works hard. As long as he realizes that the three point shot is not the key part of his offensive skill set, he will only get better as an offensive player. He may very well turn out to be the most accomplished offensive player of the 2012 draft class and may be already.

Something not really discussed when talking about Waiters is his defensive potential. In the few times he really put the effort needed on the defensive end, he was a real pest with a decent ability to steal the ball and disrupt the offense. In fact, as I analyze his lateral quickness, I think he has all the tools to be an excellent defender. The key to defense, as everyone knows, is consistent effort and focus. Most rookies don’t have the mindset to defend as hard as they play offense. Dion, unfortunately, fell into that category. But he possesses the toughness, quick hands, solid frame and lateral quickness to be a good defender. I believe that, under Mike Brown, he will begin to show the focus to be a top defender. If so, his stature as a pro will rise accordingly.

In addition to my observations above, Tristan Thompson recently related that Waiters was working extremely hard this off season. I would be shocked if he came into camp out of shape this year. In fact, I expect him to be ready to have an immediate impact on the Cavs next year. One far in excess of his impact last year. If Thompson was being completely honest, I can’t wait to see Dion this summer.

When I correlate my observations with the statistics of the top rookies last year, Waiters compares very favorably despite his injuries and slow start. Dion had the absolutely best points per game average when his points were extended out to a 36 minutes per game total. As I looked over the stats of the top rookies from last year, here is what I found:

Key stats per game calculated to 36 minutes:

Player Points Assists Turnovers Rebounds Steals
Waiters 18.3 3.8 2.5 3.1 1.2
Lillard 17.8 6.0 2.8 2.9 0.8
Davis 16.9 1.2 1.7 10.2 1.5
Beal 16.1 2.8 1.9 4.4 1.0
Kidd-Gilcrist 12.5 2.1 1.8 8.1 1.0
Barnes 13.1 1.7 1.8 5.8 0.9
Drummond 13.8 0.9 1.7 13.2 1.7
Zeller 10.8 1.7 1.7 7.8 0.6

As you can see, there is more than idle speculation to support Waiters future potential. The stats also imply that Dion does play like a true “combo guard” as some of his stats are closer to Lillard than anyone else on the list. These numbers were generated despite the challenges faced by Waiters during his first year. I absolutely want to see what Dion can become as a Cavalier and not as an ex-Cavalier. The Cavs trade Dion Waiters at their peril. I would hate to be Chris Grant during the years going forward watching Waiters emerge as a star for another team.

CAVS GET FIRST PICK !! (now what?)

Like most Cavs fans I was very happy that we were fortunate enough to get the first overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft. Now comes the hard part. What does Chris Grant do with the many assets the Cavs are fortunate enough to have acquired over the past 3 years? And I think that is the key question after this fortunate draft lottery result. This off-season for the Cavs goes far beyond “What do the Cavs do with the first pick in the draft?” As I outlined in my support of the Indian’s off-season, they put together a “package” of moves that resulted in plugging holes, securing the weakest areas of the team other than starting pitching (power, right-handed hitting, outfield), and not sacrificing the future. It was done with a combination of strategic trades, free-agent signings, and good use of their young talent. This is exactly the approach that the Cavs must take. So what they do with the first pick in the draft is just one part of the bigger puzzle.

I think that all of us need to be realistic about what can and cannot be done by the Cavs or predicted by the media and fans. Since the Cavs have won the first pick, there are even more rumors and predictions about what they might do. I have learned one thing by watching the Cavs management and Chris Grant over the past three years. No fan or media member will have any idea about what Grant will do until it is about done. All of you who are watching the rumor mills daily to get a clue about the Cavs will be terribly disappointed when none of the rumors ever sniff reality. I used to follow them until I realized that I was wasting my time with Chris Grant at the helm. For those of us who want the Cavs to succeed, that is probably a good thing.

It is also going to be a bit tough to trade out of the first pick and get full value in this draft. Without a clear number one superstar pick, the market for that pick might not be what it would be in most years. Plus, it is rare for any NBA team to trade the number one pick. I think the odds are that we keep the pick and use it. Although I will be interested to hear the many fan initiated “trades” of the first pick, don’t expect the Cavs to pull off a series of 4 draft moves that includes trading the first pick. They are fun to talk about but rarely realistic. If the Cavs do trade the pick, it will be big news.

The main thing going for the Cavs is that I think they have more flexibility and options than virtually any team in the NBA. Because of that, Grant needs to remain focused and very strategic to upgrade the roster significantly and not sacrifice the future. The cap space, multiple draft pics in this draft and beyond, our young talent pool, AND the power of having the number one pick this year all factor into what Grant can do to build the Cavs into a perennial power house. If he uses the “assets” he has acquired wisely, it will be a great future for the Cavs. If squandered, we will end up as a perennial middle of the road team with little hope of a title.

The Cavs are giving hints to everyone about their short-term and long-term objectives. Repeated references to the long three years of suffering by Cavs fans and that they don’t want to be going back to the lottery again all points to this off-season being very active and different from recent ones. Some veteran acquisitions are likely but it is not clear by what means they will accomplish that task or how far they will go to get them. Obviously, it has to be trades or free agency but the market might determine what approach they take. In my opinion, every attempt to add via free agency as opposed to trading away valuable young players should be explored. Free agency may not be a realistic possibility to add impact talent in Cleveland, but we need to explore it aggressively. If it looks impossible, then the trade route might be the only way.

There are many thoughts about how to approach free agency this off-season. Some feel we should avoid it altogether because it will limit the Cavs flexibility moving forward. Others feel we should add some “middle of the road” free agents and save most of the cap space. A few think we should go after big free agents and try to add impact talent. Most fans, in my opinion, think we should save virtually all our cap space to make a monster push for free agents in 2014. Many pointing to the possibility of LeBron using his early opt out option and returning to the Cavs. That is the thinking that bothers me the most. If the Cavs employ ANY strategy that includes counting on LeBron returning in 2014, it will end in devastation and embarrassment. Don’t misunderstand, I am not against him returning if he really wants to do so and is willing to sign a contract without another “coronation” ceremony tour of the NBA. But I think the chances of that happening are slim and none.

Since I favor free agency as the best way to add veteran talent and not trading away the young talent we have worked so hard to acquire, I think the Cavs should strongly consider trying to add one impact free agent this off-season if at all possible. Even adding two and using most of our cap flexibility would be acceptable if it were the right two. Sadly, there are few SF free agents that will be available over the next two years that will really solve our problem there. So, again, creativity will be key. I am actually opposed to adding “complementary” free agents this off-season just to make the playoffs. To me, that is wasting cap space. We tried adding a bunch of complementary free agents when LeBron was here and we all know how that worked out. Pay big and go big seems right to me.

If we take the impact free agent approach, there really are not very many other than the “gang” that could exercise their opt-out option in 2014. That is a circus I really don’t want to join. So a couple of names that might fit the bill and are not aging is Al Jefferson and Andre Iguodala. Maybe, if it is clear to both of them that we are trying to add them both, they might consider it. We would have to clear some cap space to do this, but we could do that. We still would have some cap space coming free in 2014 and would not use our mid-level exception. So complementary pieces could be added if needed later. Iguodala would solve our SF problem and improve our defensive presence. Jefferson would be a great starter along side Andy and our rotation of Thompson/Zeller/Jefferson/Varejao would be solid and potentially championship caliber. We would still have Miles and Gee to back up Iggy this year but, eventually, we will need to let them go and add a young backup SF to develop. I am fully aware that this would likely not be possible as Iguodala probably will not exercise his early termination option. If he does not, we could still clear enough cap space for making a run at Deng in 2014. And, yes, there is always that other guy.

If the Cavs could take that approach, they would still have all of their picks this year and not trade Waiters or Thompson. They could afford to take McLemore with the first pick and the rotation of McLemore, Waiters, Irving and Ellington would be solid and possibly spectacular. Waiters would need to play the backup point guard minutes, but I think he could do that effectively. Of course, that is an 11 deep rotation so one or two of those names would not be playing regularly.

The Cavs could use the other picks to move up and pick up a developmental Center who has great potential. There are a ton of them in this draft. Or maybe we find that small forward to develop. Or a back-up point guard. If we take this approach, we actually can draft to develop a few players instead of depending on them.

This is only one way to accomplish our goal of making the playoffs in 2013-14 and not mortgage the future. There are dozens of other, probably better, options to consider going forward. Strategic trades with teams needing to clear cap space and having players that fit our needs are also possible. I personally favor strategies that do not include trading any of our four top draft picks in the last two drafts. If we could get Jefferson for only money with a PER of 20.99 last year instead of trading a ton to get Aldridge with a PER of 20.45, it just makes sense to me. Both are very good players. Jefferson is just a bit below Aldridge in my view. The critical variable in all of that is if no impact free agent will sign with us. That is a variable that I can not accurately weigh before the Cavs actually try.

So let’s buckle up and enjoy the ride. I have a distinct feeling that Grant will start to push hard to fill the Cavs holes and secure the Cavs future. I only hope that he makes the right moves and saves whatever he needs to for 2014. Not with the idea of signing back the one who left but with the idea of making the Cavs a championship caliber team for years to come.

Follow me at @cwins_jim on twitter and we will keep an eye on this together. I am looking forward to it and welcome your comments and questions.

Shabazz Muhammad: High Risk, High Reward

Going into his freshman season this year, the nation was waiting for Muhammad to step on the court at UCLA. He was widely regarded as the number one player in the country. He dominated games in high school against the best players with explosive athleticism and a sweet left handed stroke. He is 6 foot 6 inches tall with a near 7 foot wingspan. This allows him to post up against smaller players and play multiple positions. The high expectations never quite merged with reality though. Muhammad was immediately off to a bad start when he was suspended for the first 3 games of the season for accepting lodging during collegiate visits. He stepped on the court in game 4 and although his numbers were solid, he was out of shape and lacking his usual energy. I caught my first game of his against Arizona in January and 3 games later on in the year, including the tournament game against Minnesota where he finished the first half 0 for 7 but came on strong in the second, finishing the game 6 of 18 from the floor, albeit without a three pointer on 6 attempts.

ShabazzMuhammed_UCLANCAAInside

See, the thing about Muhammad is that he can easily be a superstar in the NBA in the Kobe Bryant mold. Unfortunately, he could also be the next Darius Miles. He is immature, reckless and selfish on the court, but there isn’t another player in this draft with the scoring ability that Muhommad has. Shabazz has a killer instinct that the NBA hasn’t seen in several years, but this also means he isn’t going to pass the ball very often. He averaged under an assist per game this past season. He is relentless on the offensive boards and there hasn’t been a player with his ability to stuff the scoring stat sheet simply on ability alone but still displays an endless motor. On the flip side, if he isn’t doing well offensively, his defense goes from average to bad with the most noticeable issues coming from not getting back in transition.

This is another player that fits a position of need. Muhommad can play either the SG or SF spot, but could plug in immediately at the 3 for the Cavs. Is he a good actual fit? At the beginning of the year and even after the Arizona game, I would have said yes. Now, I would say no. Irving and Waiters are way too good with the ball in their hands to have to worry about passing the ball to the black hole that is Shabazz and never seeing it again. Is he the player with the most superstar potential? Probably, but right now, the Cavs really can’t afford to miss on this pick and the risks are too great with Shabazz.

The Cavs hired Mike Brown? What’s not to like?

The Cavs hiring Mike Brown less than one week after they fired Byron Scott is going to raise a lot of eyebrows. This move seems to me in reading the initial reaction from fans to be relatively polarizing. The number of jokes has been overwhelming. The ridiculous discussion of what this does to the Cavs’ chances at securing that guy from Miami in 2014 has already started. What is missed in the sea of jokes and speculation is what this does for our basketball team. Mike Brown already has the job but let me make a case for him.

You win with defense!

The Cavs have been a terrible defensive team. They have been in the bottom 5 in the league in defensive efficiency in the past 3 years. The biggest reason for that is the team on the floor. The Cavs are young and do not have an elite defender on the perimeter. Alonzo Gee is well above average but I don’t have him in the class of lockdown defender. Kyrie Irving can’t stay with the best point guards in the league. Those facts are not on the coach. However, even with the Lakers roster in 2011-2012, Mike Brown had that team in the middle of the pack in defense. Maybe I’m missing something, but that does not seem like a great defensive team. Mike Brown has proven he can coach defense and I think that he will continue to do that. Our schemes against pick and roll and defending the three point line have been awful and will get better with Mike Brown. He will DEMAND defense from this team, something that hasn’t happened lately. Will this Cavs team be a top 5 defensive team like it was twice during his first tenure? I don’t think we have the talent but if we finish in the bottom 5 again we made the wrong choice.

Brown is a tireless worker

I’m not around the Cavs on a daily basis but everything I read and hear is that Mike Brown is the type of coach that gets there early and stays late. He started as a video coordinator which means he knows how to break down film and spends the time to do it. He will get the most out of the young players as he did with Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic in spurts the first time around. He took a team with Eric Snow at point guard to the Finals. Yes, everything is easier with the ultra-star LeBron, but if you look at this team does it scream Finals to you? He should foster our core’s growth and be able to build the veterans around into a playoff team.

Does Brown have questions to answer on offense? Yes. He needs to pick a scheme and work it to perfection. Does Brown have to prove his ability to handle a superstar? Yes. If you point at how LeBron didn’t “listen” to him you should point at the entire organization. Arguably the two biggest deficits the Cavs have in regards to coaching are being addressed with Mike Brown, a coach who has been to the finals. He will should take this young energetic team and put that energy to work on defense which will allow our athletes to run the floor. I for one am on board with the hiring and think that this team will get better quickly.