[2] Dolans – Look In Mirror: Baseball Is Not Dead (Except in Cleveland??)

Before we explore the defeatist psychology developed from the Dolan ownership, let’s take a look at some of the failed generic “excuses” that try to remove management and ownership from responsibility:

One of the most commonly repeated reasons for the anemic attendance in Cleveland since 2008 is that baseball isn’t popular anymore. Young people want the excitement of a fast paced sport. No one likes the pace of baseball. Who wants to sit in the stands to watch an untimed sport? Well, the answer to that question is easily answered by game attendance. You might call me on this and ask for TV ratings and the like. But as valid as that would be, attendance still measures how many people want to spend their hard earned money on sporting events. MLB attendance has gradually grown since 2009 from about 73.4 million to about 74 million paying fans per year. In the same timeframe, NBA attendance has stayed flat at about 21.40 million fans. Both sports were better in years just before 2009 for about three years. That seemed to match the economy. The NFL attendance in 2009 was 17.15 million, went down, and then recovered to 17.3 million by 2013. To be fair it would be harder to grow attendance over a 16 game season but those are the figures. Conversely, the shorter season also places tickets at a premium and inflates attendance on the basis of demand per game. So, in summary, 74 million paying fans watch the 81 home games per team per year in MLB while 38.7 million attend the 48 home games per team per year for the NBA and NFL combined. Baseball has slightly grown attendance since 2009 and the other major sports have stayed basically flat. I don’t think that the “baseball is dead” theory explains Cleveland Indians attendance (or any team’s attendance for that matter).

Well, what do we expect, Cleveland is a football town!! Baseball is an afterthought. If it wasn’t for the Browns leaving, the Indians would not have been so popular in the mid 90s. This theory is thrown around with more regularity than a laxative. Yet, there is not a shred of evidence to link the Indians attendance to the Browns attendance. Since the Browns have been back in 1999, the Indians had massive attendance in the first 4 years of the Browns return. Starting at 3.45 million per year in 1999 and dropping to a still massive 2.62 million in 2002. What happened, did the fans take 4 years to get “used to” the Browns again?? And why did the Indians draw 2.84 million fans in 1995?? The Browns were still in town. The answer is simple and blows this “Browns Town” theory out of the water. The fans of Cleveland are not idiots. They can tell when a franchise is worth watching or rooting for and when they are not. They might miss by a year or so sometimes, but the Cleveland fans will pay money for a winning franchise or one that they perceive to be striving toward that goal. Since there is no evidence that Cleveland fans are unwilling to spread their money around to all 3 major sports when worthy, I don’t think the Dolans can find solace that their failing brand is based on their being trapped in a football town.

So if it isn’t that baseball is failing …. And if it isn’t that Cleveland fans can’t support the Indians because the Browns exist ….. It must be that, well….. , the darn stadium is getting weathered and we don’t have a stand up open bar in the outfield where people can stand and converse and drink with their family, coworkers and friends. Or we need a larger play area for kids so that the parents and child can avoid the game as much as humanly possible. Who wants to sit in the stands and watch the actual game anyway?? On the first point, I don’t drink at the ballpark because it is too damned expensive. But I don’t object to those who want a drink. And I have two grandchildren ages 3 and 5. They sit in the stands EVERY game we go to and watch the game and the players and the scoreboard and cheer every home run and every run. They laugh and know the players names and their batting stances. Now that might have something to do with my daughter and son-in-law both being diehard Indian fans but who knows. My point here is that, while any enhancements made to Progressive field might be nice, the ballpark is certainly not the problem here. So the big hoopla around the stadium enhancements that we won’t have to pay for (actually being paid by the concession company – what does that tell you?) is nothing more than a smokescreen for the real problem with the attendance there.

You know, I never really thought baseball was dying or the Browns existence lowers Indian’s attendance or the stadium was a problem , WE ALL KNOW it is the depressed economy in Ohio and the Cleveland area. Well, while the economic changes after 2007 certainly took a dire toll on Cleveland, it didn’t seem to correlate with Tribe attendance all that well. Between 2003 and 2008, the Indians averaged about 2 million per season. Low was 1.7 million and high was 2.3 million. In 2009, the year of by far the largest scare when the stock market crashed to an ominous low in March, the Indians drew 1.77 million. In 2011, they drew 1.84 million. Right now the Indians are sitting at about 1.32 million with about 6 home dates remaining. If they draw at their current pace, which might be a pipe dream, they will end up at around 1.43 million. That will be the SECOND LOWEST ATTENDANCE SINCE 1992 !!! Topped only by 2010 which was 1.39 million. This is exactly 1 year after the team had a dramatic season ending rally and somehow got into the wild card game by winning 92 games! During years that the Cleveland and National economy is clearly improving, 2011 to 2014, the Indians attendance has been 1.84, 1.60, 1.57 and now 1.43 million. Throw a 92 win season in the middle of those years (2013) and you still have a progressively declining attendance that doesn’t correlate to the economy, the condition of the ballpark, the popularity of the Browns, or the popularity of baseball. In my next installment, we will begin to explore deeper into the current state of the Indians and what, if anything, can stop the free fall.

[1] Dolan Family – Look In Mirror: or Indians Support Doomed

Hey Paul………..  Hey Larry …………… If you refuse to look in that mirror in a critical way, your support will continue to dwindle and the Indians are a doomed franchise. This is a wake-up call to you both. I hope you listen.

Now I know this is starting out as another of the million fans serenade of “Can’t trust the Dolans”. But I intend to develop another theory around this debacle that has been the Dolan ownership of the Tribe. I don’t want this to be a typical “Dolan bashing” where they are portrayed as liars and cheap. As I try to look at this logically, I doubt either is close to the truth and both characterizations are almost certainly inaccurate. But that doesn’t change the fact that they are slowly killing the Indians as a franchise, even to the point of threatening it’s very existence in Cleveland. I just do not think that this result is intentional or deliberate in any way, shape or form. It is an inability, partly because of the advice around them, to accurately look in the mirror and decipher the slow decline of a proud franchise. As a lifelong Indians fan and supporter of the team, I will use my intuition and observational skills to develop a premise upon which the Dolans would be wise to take note.

The detail of this will be for later this weekend, but I wanted to throw this “hook” out to give our readers a sense of what is to come. I will likely do this in a series of posts or it will become a novel that few are likely to read. I have very strong feelings about the direction of the franchise and want to address some of the oft heard speculation as to why the Tribe is becoming a distant afterthought in the Cleveland sports landscape. I think most of these analyses are simplistic and overstated, although most do have some component of truth. Mine may fall into the same category, but I want to try and put all of this together with a coherent thread. Come on back later tonight and over the next few days. Should be an interesting journey!

LeBron James – Coming Home The Right Way !!

LeBron is willing to take on the challenge!
LeBron is willing to take on the challenge!
If any of you read my earlier article today you will know that I, as many of you, was pretty hurt by the way James left Cleveland. I totally respect him for his right to leave but not the way he left. This link will send you to a video that connects my feelings of the past with the hopefulness of the present. It is similar to many others but I tried to capture the words of LeBron as he wrote them with Lee Jenkins of SI. I narrated the whole essay but it was far too long to use for a simple video. So I shortened both halves to make the length tolerable.

I hope you enjoy it. It was kind of personal to finish it. If I had the video and quality of pictures needed, it would have been far better. But you will get the point. Here it is… LeBron James – Coming Home Narration.

THIS VERSION OF THE VIDEO HAS BEEN FIXED TO VIEW ON MOBILE DEVICES.

LeBron James after Decision 1 – A target of hate … Should he have been?

Will LeBron Take On The Challenge??
Looks like he took on the challenge!!
Here is a letter I wrote to myself and family after the debacle that was “The Decision #1”. I revisit it today because LeBron has come full circle. There are probably some things in this long (my apologies) dissertation that I regret as well. But I think my readers might want to see a before and after view of this from a long suffering and never dying Cleveland fan. Again, I am sorry for the length. I did not want to shorten it for this post. This was written very soon after “Decision 1”. ……….. Continue reading “LeBron James after Decision 1 – A target of hate … Should he have been?”

Dan Gilbert did EXACTLY the right thing for the Cavs

Those questioning Gilbert needs to rethink their analysis
Those questioning Gilbert need to rethink their analysis
I have been frankly appalled by the simplistic analysis rendered by so many of the media after the recent decision by Dan Gilbert to fire Chris Grant. Although this type of criticism of a powerful figure sells “papers” and radio sound bites, it rings hollow when broken down with logic. I get the impression that the usually placid media in Cleveland have been reveling in the joy of second guessing struggling franchises. In most cases, I am right there with them. In this case, I can not add to the din of distrust they have spewed out.

Let’s first look at the decision itself and how it makes perfect sense. Then I will expand that by going into some specific criticisms and addressing them. I recognize that this is now “old news” but the media continues to maintain simplistic criticisms even as of last night on the radio with Bill Livingston. Not to throw Livingston under the bus as he is one of the most balanced commentators out there. It is just that the media “marvels” at the fact firing the GM might actually energize the players and allow them to play better. The GM does not coach them nor does he interact with them consistently (I will address my speculation on that later) so how could firing the GM possibly be the right move? To all of those media and fans in “wonderment”, I will do my best to explain it in a workable way.

Dan Gilbert is the CEO and majority owner of the Cavs. As a CEO and owner, you must think like an owner or CEO to make competent decisions. Most of us have never been placed in that position and are unaware of the proper way to publicly and privately portray tough decisions. It is clear that Gilbert was fed up with the status quo and felt he must step up to make a change. Most of the media felt that the obvious sacrificial lamb in this public execution needed to be the head coach. He was the one leading the team on the court and it was on the court that the Cavs had under performed and remained uninspired. The fans and media thinking that were, of course, correct about the play of the team on the court and the lack of clear and consistent effort by the players. Certainly it was not apparent that the General Manager was not performing up to expectations. so why make the GM the fall guy in this mess and not the head coach or demand that this under achieving team get broken up?

The difference here is that Dan Gilbert, no matter what you might think of him, is a very experienced and competent owner. He owns with his group dozens of companies and must find a way to navigate them to success. So, just like everyone is excited about the Indians finally getting an experienced and successful manager on the field, the Cavs have a very experienced and successful owner upon which to base their operations. As an owner, I think he saw the same on the court flaws that we all could see. Now, do you think those terrible performances were because the coach was not telling them the right things to do or because the players were not accepting the message from the coach? Or was it because they accepted the message and did not have the skill or intelligence to execute the game plans put before them? Gilbert knew Brown was a tireless worker. Many have commented on how no one outworks Mike Brown as a head coach. By all reports those who have spoken with Brown acknowledge how detailed and high level his knowledge is of the game of basketball. So Gilbert, after weighing all of those factors, decided that to fire the coach who had had less than a year to drive his message home was ill advised and would send exactly the wrong message to his players. Remember, he had seen Byron Scott preach many of the same things about heart and effort and desire for three years without any budge from the players.

So….. if it is the players that couldn’t receive the message of how to be a professional and how much effort it takes, then the message needed to be sent to the players when the ax came down. That can be done by breaking up the team and “selling low” to get the pieces rearranged. Even that may not work because if key pieces remain that don’t understand the importance of driving relentlessly at a goal, you will still fail even with some new pieces. Also, the other teams in the NBA would be perfectly happy to rip off the Cavs when they knew they had entered a “fire sale” just to change the culture of the players. That would have placed the Cavs in a terrible position of leverage and Grant would not be able to hold other teams for ransom as he had done in the past with trades. Also, Chris Grant’s reputation of “overvaluing” his players would be awful if the team needed to be broken up. Seeing all of that, Gilbert recognized that keeping the same management and breaking up the team would be messy and would devalue his team in the short and long term. That was a place that he decided he didn’t want to go.

The other way to send the message directly at the players is to fire the man who hired them. Anyone who has worked at a business knows that if the man that brought you there is terminated, you could be next. That situation is completely out of your control. In other words, you could be traded to another crappy team or a good team. If your role with the team increased compared with the Cavs, you probably got traded to a crappy team. If your role with the new team decreased substantially, it might be a good team but your standing as an individual player could drop. Since the Cavs have a ton of young players, they would have almost no say in what fate lies before them. So you need to decide, make a situation that you are already in better or keep screwing up and giving poor effort so you can suffer a completely unknown fate with a new team. You might say the veterans would see this as an opportunity to get out and that chance could be improved by playing with poor effort and going to a better team. The problem there is that the veterans on this team have matured to the point that this childish logic is not part of their DNA. Jack, Miles, Deng, and Andy simply can not bring themselves to take that coward’s way out. So, if Gilbert gauged his players maturity correctly, that result was highly unlikely.

Of course it was the GM that “hired” all of those players by trades, free agent signings and drafting. The players know this and can’t help but respect the man who “wanted” them on his team. Dion Waters said exactly that after the firing. Now they had a new GM who they didn’t know as well but were stuck with the SAME COACH. They didn’t know what the new GM thought of them and even what the owner thought of them after Grant was fired. That kind of uncertainty challenges people. They either decide to fight to make it better or sink further to the bottom. Sometimes it is this kind of a test that finally wakes talented young people up and they decide to take another path from the one they were taking. What decision the players took would become obvious fairly quickly and Gilbert was hoping that might clarify who they had to move, if anyone.

Firing the coach would have sent EXACTLY the wrong message. That would simply say that “you guys are fine” we just haven’t found the coach talented enough to lead you. We have kept all of you but fired the coach who was sending you the message about hustle and defense and effort and intensity. Gee, that was the same message sent to you from Byron Scott so it must be the wrong message. We will simply change the coach, change the message, and you guys will be just fine. We are on our way to the playoffs!! For all of you that favored firing the coach instead of the GM, can you see how that message would have been completely wrong and misguided? It is the players that needed the wake up call and not the coach! I am not a big Mike Brown fan and, in fact, was not particularly comfortable when they hired him. But I can certainly see the folly in firing him after less than one season and sending that message of acceptance to the players. It made infinitely more sense to fire the GM who brought all of those players to Cleveland and send them the message that this is not acceptable.

I can go on and on why this decision made so much sense. But I would be remiss if I didn’t address now the most illogical objection to the GM firing that has been repeated over and over and over again to the point of my nausea. It is like everyone just parroted the logic and accepted it as fact even though it is illogical itself. After the firing of the GM, Dan Gilbert said that he liked his coach (Mike Brown) and his players. That he BELIEVED in them and thought they could turn it around. That has been universally panned as illogical and a sign that Gilbert is out of touch. Again, you need to think like a CEO or owner to understand this logic. The common logic says “Well, if you like the players and the coach, why fire the man who put them together.” Here is why. After you make a dramatic decision as a CEO such as firing the man charged with running the basketball operations, you need to decide what message you want to send publicly next. If you imply that the coach might be next and you are not confident, the players continue to tune him out thinking he is a lame duck anyway. As the owner, you can’t afford to send that message or anything close to that message. So it would have made no sense to say anything negative on that topic. You want the players to know that “Mike Brown is going to be your coach so you had better get along and make the best of it.” Secondly, what sense in any way does it make to imply that you don’t like your players and that you think they will fail? What CEO does that? I can tell you that a smart CEO does not do that because the message has already been sent publicly by firing the head of basketball operations. Now you need to build up your troops and support them publicly. Privately, you will charge your new GM to do other things to send personal more individual messages to your players and coaching staff. Make no mistake about it, I am 100% certain those messages were sent. And I don’t mean all negative messages. I am sure that many of them were positive and productive.

So, while the press would have been overjoyed if the CEO took pot shots at everyone including the coach and the players in his press conference, he absolutely would have been a moron to do so. That approach would have been similar to the infamous “LeBron comic sans letter” that he wishes he had never sent. It makes for headlines but it undermines the fabric of the very organization he has spent so much money to grow and promote. As a fan, I might have liked him to challenge everyone in his presser but as a leader I realize it makes no sense at all.

Now that I hope I have debunked the most public objection to Dan Gilbert’s decision I want to talk about some of the subtleties that makes it the right first step toward placing the organization on solid footing. First of all about Grant. Most observers had no real objection to Gilbert firing Grant. It is just that they felt others were more deserving of the ax (eg Coach Brown). Grant had been with the organization longer and had placed his stamp on it more than any single individual. Despite that fact, other organizations had clearly leapfrogged the Cavs in their development with arguably fewer “assets” and certainly not as much luck. The Cavs won TWO draft lotteries under Grant’s tenure. Plus, most agree that Grant had garnered a reputation of overvaluing his players and trying to “outsmart” other GMs. Powerful people do not like to be made to look stupid and Grant, actually by accident to a degree, had done that a couple of times. Gilbert probably knows but we don’t know how many trades Grant did not make when put before him that might have propelled the Cavs forward. This is speculative but it is certainly plausible. What is less speculative is that Gilbert may have known that Grant’s reputation around the league could hinder his ability for future trades. Some GMs have been quoted as saying they would avoid talking trades with Grant. Finally, from a “culture” standpoint (something also panned by the media when Gilbert mentioned it with the firing), Gilbert probably saw it deteriorate under Grant this year. Even at his last press conference as GM, I thought Grant sounded smug, distant and detached from his and the team’s detractors. He almost acted like he was “above the crowd” on this and that he knew the way even if we didn’t. That detached attitude might have been privately manifest as well with less personal contact with the players and the coach. I think Grant had been distancing himself from this job for awhile based on what I could see. If true, Gilbert’s changing the culture comments may not have been as far off as some speculated after his press conference.

Gilbert had also gotten to know David Griffin through his several years with the organization. He knew that he was more of the “go out and touch” kind of guy in terms of his management style. I get the impression Gilbert is similar. That is a good fit. Also, Gilbert had undoubtedly asked around the league about the reputation of Griffin before making the switch. For those who think Gilbert has not been contemplating this move for awhile, I would beg to differ. He was just waiting for the proper time to pull the trigger where it would have the greatest impact. If the team had improved, he would have waited. When the team was embarrassed by a depleted Laker team, the time was right.

Griffin, who I hope Gilbert retains for the long haul, has the right approach to young players IMO. He will privately let them know what he expects of them and what might happen if they cannot produce results. I am also certain the same type conversation occurred with Mike Brown and his coaching staff. This is the “culture change” Gilbert was referring to based on what Griffin himself said about his “different” approach from Grant. He clearly distanced himself from the “hands off” approach, which implied that may have been Grant’s style. The often speculated conversations that he supposedly had with Kyrie and Dion makes perfect sense based on what we have seen since he took over. It is speculated that he took Kyrie and Dion aside separately or collectively and told them that the club had no intention of trading either one of them and he felt they BOTH were core pieces going forward. It is my opinion that Dion and Kyrie have wondered that ever since Dion was drafted. They can not help to have heard the incessant chatter in the background from ESPN and other media sources saying that they were a “bad fit” together and both needed the ball so they did not belong on the same team. Now it may turn out that it is entirely true that Dion and Kyrie can not coexist on the same roster, but Griffin sent the exact right message going forward to allow him to see if that is true. Similar to why Gilbert could not trash the coach or players after firing Grant, Griffin needs to see if Dion and Kyrie can coexist. So he told them, you WILL coexist so see if you both can make the best of it. If it fails, then one will be gone but we will all know why and can live with the result. So can Griffin and Gilbert if that happens. What has happened is a much more cohesive Kyrie and Dion on the court, a much more public display of support from each player for the other, and a private practice Friday before the All Star festivities. Those are all good first steps.

The Cavs needed to send a message of accountability throughout the organization and the clear leader of the company needed to emerge to make that happen. Gilbert did just that at the right time and sent the right message. This is just the beginning. My analysis of why Gilbert was right has no connection to the current 4 game win streak. Although welcomed, it can be just as short lived as many other signs of hope we have seen. I am absolutely certain that Griffin, Brown, and each player will be held accountable for the results. And, if the results don’t improve, then more definitive action will be taken. No one is safe. No one should be coddled. I think Gilbert sent that message loud and clear. Let’s hope he will follow-up with whatever is necessary to stabilize the ship going forward. Because the changes MIGHT have just begun.