The Roster Battles are Interesting Here are some new capsule profiles for your review and a couple of updates. Hope you enjoy them.
UPDATE – Vinnie Pestano: He threw again today and seemed to be working on his fastball command. He threw a few 80 MPH breaking balls but his focus was clearly on the fastball. His speed was between 90-91 MPH and more often at 91. This is still about 2 MPH below his previous springs but he could catch up by the end. His main problem was fastball command with the velocity being less important. He still has some work to do. I am rooting for him.
UPDATE – CC Lee: Still throwing well and looking good. He is right on the edge of being ready. I would still like to see better fastball command. If sent down (which is likely), he will be near the top of the list when call-ups are needed.
Carlos Santana: As you have been hearing, Carlos is beginning to find his mojo at third base. He is playing with excellent skill, soft hands, and a cannon for an arm. His arm had been inconsistent but that seems to be changing with many excellent throws lately. I think he has a great chance to win the job.
Justin Sellers: This diminutive bundle of energy acquired from the Dodgers earlier this spring has been very impressive. His fielding has been solid but not spectacular. His hitting has been excellent showing good swing to contact and an ability to take the ball where it is pitched. He has gap power and a very lackluster major league hitting performance in his career. Great depth for the minors but it will be very difficult for him to break camp with the ML club.
David Murphy: He has done nothing to diminish his reputation as a solid fielder. However, his hitting has not been very good and he seems to be pressing a bit. A year like last year is enough to shake anyone’s confidence and I fear that his confidence has not fully recovered. Still 2 more weeks to go so there is still time.
Matt Carson: Matt’s performance at the end of last year and this spring makes it very difficult to cut him from the roster. His age and lack of a great minor league track record are strikes against him considering he is going up against the likes of Jeff Francoer and others. He is hitting well now and his defense has been solid.
I will try to get some more capsules up on the site soon.
Some position players of interest Here are some more brief capsules on Indian players during spring training. We will explore more position players over the next couple of blogs.
Lonnie Chisenhall: I remain concerned about his long term future with the Indians. He is frustrating for devoted Indian fans to watch because of his immense promise. Way too much talent to give up on but way to much inconsistent performance to count on. He has tried to adjust to his repeated 1-2, 0-2 counts by swinging at the first pitch. That may work for awhile but most scouting reports will catch up to that and he will see breaking balls in the dirt on pitch one. He would be better off simply seeing the ball and hitting it instead of developing a tendency. I see the same over anxiousness this spring that we see during the season. He had a nice day at the plate yesterday but several poor days as well. His fielding remains inconsistent making him tough for Terry to count on. But Francona clearly has not given up on him. He had another nice double today as well but still doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. I wish I was as optimistic as Terry.
Francisco Lindor: As all Indian fans know, he has a major league glove right now. The Indians are trying to get him a good number of At Bats this spring. That is a good strategy. He was a DH yesterday, a position he will likely never play at the ML level. His swing is aggressive making him prone to off speed pitches down but that is also what results in extra base power. So his job going forward is balancing his aggressive swing with good plate discipline. Often those two don’t go together but, when they do, potential .300 hitters with gap power result. That is probably Lindor’s upside. But combine that with a fine defender and the Indians will have one heck of a player.
Jesus Agular: Do not be fooled by his long no-hit streak this spring. This young man brings a fairly nice discipline to the plate along with pure power. He does not seem to over swing. Even with this frustrating spring in his first big chance with the big club, he looks controlled and disciplined. Not easy when you are 0 for 16. I like his approach and I saw him hit some nice balls that were turned into outs. Certainly one to watch going forward. I think he has an excellent chance to emerge within two years. I was not able to see enough defensive plays to be sure there but he looks a bit stiff. Would like to see more but he is probably sent down by the time you read this.
Carlos Montcrief: I like what little I saw of him this spring. He has power and reasonable plate discipline. He has an aggressive swing and makes good contact. His fielding is not elegant looking but effective. He made some nice plays but I think he might have made them look harder than they were. A work in progress but he is a solid prospect.
I will have more available late tonight. Going to check out the Cavs now. Ttyl8r.
More pitching capsules Another sun-filled day in the books and we have some new observations for spring training with the Indians. Not all of these observations come from today’s game but they come from the last several days of spring training.
Cody Allen: Cody has dynamic stuff and today was no different. He did show some signs of rust in that his fastball command was still not what it will be eventually. His off speed pitches were solid and his ability to blow away Trumbo was impressive. He will end up right where he belongs in the eighth inning.
John Axford: Threw his fastball in the mid 90s and seemed to have reasonably good command. He did not throw his curveball hardly at all. It seems to me that he is preserving his curveball until later in the spring. I suspect that as he begins to mix in his off speed pitches he will look even more effective. At this point I am not concerned and I believe that he could be an effective closer. I do not believe that he will be a significant downgrade over Chris Perez.
Scott Barnes: Scott was throwing the ball fairly well in the two times that I have watched him. Unfortunately, he does not show any substantial improvement over where he looked to be last year. I still feel that he would be an extremely long shot to make the Indians team and I am not even certain if he could be effective if we need to call him up.
Preston Guilmet: He suffers from his main problem of having average stuff. It is not that his stuff has no major-league potential but is just not effective enough to consistently get major league hitters out. I do not have much confidence that he can be effective either now or in the future for the Indians.
T.J. House: Decent but not great fastball and fastball command. He can get hitters out with his off speed pitches, but not consistently enough. Still a prospect but approaching the point where that may no longer be true.
Justin Masterson: He looked sharp and will be ready to go on opening day. I just wish the Indians would sign him to a three or four year deal. He would be worth it in my view.
Bryan Shaw: Another dynamic late inning reliever that looked fine on the mound today. He will pair with Cody Allen to clean up the seventh and eighth innings. Looked good and he impressed me again with his mid 90’s fastball paired with a sharp breaking ball.
Blake Wood: He has a great chance to compete for a bullpen spot. I did not see the explosion I expected with his fastball but it is good enough. He was effective in his one inning.
More capsules tomorrow. I will include position players.
Cleveland has every right to be a proud city There was some more bad news that struck the city of Cleveland today and it had nothing to do with its sports teams. That, in itself, is an interesting contrast. United Airlines is pulling their “hub” from Cleveland and our flights from that airline will slowly decline. This should not come as a complete shock to anyone as the airline industry, in their “consolidation phase”, is seeking to screw the consumer at every conceivable turn for the sake of their shareholders. That sounds awful but it is truly the American Way. Any company’s Board of Trustees and CEO are bound to do what they can to enhance shareholder value. That is their duty. Not to make consumers happy or enhance their value unless it concurrently enhances shareholder value. You don’t need to be an economist to recognize that that convergence rarely happens.
Consumer flight costs are going up and our convenience is going way down. Now the industry can come up with some odd constructed statistics where they claim that is not happening, but you only need to be a consumer of air travel to recognize the obvious. Since August 10, 2012, United Airlines stock price has risen from 17.78 to 45.84 as of Friday. That is a rise of almost 158% since the late summer of 2012. Even with the huge rise in the stock market for 2013, it is clear that United has outperformed even one of our most bullish market years. So the CEO and Board of Trustees are doing their job. How can we really complain about that? One reason might be that we are much more likely to be consumers of United Airlines in Cleveland and not shareholders.
It is not surprising that this announcement comes right on the heals of a lavish article in the United Airlines magazine about Cleveland. I suppose Clevelanders should think a well constructed article eases the pain of the loss of hub status. The way our sports teams are being portrayed lately, United probably does think that is a fair trade. If you really think about it, maybe some of the research that went into the article was used to determine that it was time to pull the plug on hub status for Cleveland. A bizarre twist Cleveland area residents should well appreciate.
So, despite the bad news about the United hub and the living hell that is our sports teams, we need to look forward at the positives of the Cleveland area and there are many. These have been well innumerate in other places but I will attempt this brief list as a reminder in these rather difficult times. In case there is any doubt, this is not an attempt to be cute or deferential about Cleveland or to provide comic relief. I honestly believe these things are real and palpable. I believe these things mean something. I believe they translate into improved quality of life and a better place for our families. Other cities might be able to claim more lavish examples and greater quantity but rarely greater quality.
1) Let’s start with the weather. Cleveland is the butt of many jokes and barbs about this by people in Los Angeles and Miami:
Yes, Cleveland gets winter and snow and cold temperatures. But Clevelanders also know how to deal with it and rarely are stopped by it. The streets generally remain open, commerce can continue, and residents know how to stay comfortable at uncomfortable times. Plus, Clevelanders know how to DRIVE in that weather. A fact that is sometimes overshadowed by an idiot on the road but confirmed by far fewer multicar disasters like happened in sunny Atlanta recently.
When was the last hurricane, mud slide, wild fire, Tsunami, tropical storm, earthquake or other similar massively destructive weather disaster in Cleveland? We do have flooding from time to time and certainly have tornados but our level of destruction from those disasters is generally well confined with a few people being devastated but not large populations. The number of deaths is more limited as is the destruction of property. Now I lived through a tornado with 5 homes destroyed in my neighborhood so I am not minimizing the destruction just putting it in perspective.
Our summers may from time to time seem pretty hot and uncomfortable but not nearly at the level of those in most climates where they chirp about our winters.
Clevelanders see the seasons change and the leaves turn and nature renew itself year after year. Some of our smug detractors rarely see such things and marvel when they do.
2) Cleveland area residents live near one of the greatest fresh water bodies of water in the world! There are beaches to go to in the summer that are a few miles away instead of days away. The boating community is alive and well in Cleveland and hundreds of boats travel in and fish our waters throughout the warmer seasons. We have homes overlooking the water and lavish views. No, it is not Hawaii, but I would bet that other areas would love to have Cleveland’s access to water.
3) Another more unusual angle of Cleveland’s access to Lake Erie is the fact that fresh water is probably one of the rarest assets in the world and certainly in our country. It is absolutely essential for life but few large bodies of fresh water exist. Plus, right now, we have abundant rainfall to supplement our supplies. If I were to pick an area likely to survive tough atmospheric times, it would be our area. I know this sounds crazy to discuss, but it is a valid point that cannot be disputed if you dare to think about it.
4) If you are sick, are there many places you would rather be than living in the Cleveland region? Cleveland has multiple major health systems in our area all of which have received huge accolades. Although one system garners most of the press, the medical community knows that there are huge World Class medical assets in Cleveland that reach far beyond the borders on any one system. Research and advances in medicine abound from Cleveland. Some may argue that they are equivalent, but no area can clearly declare medical superiority over Cleveland.
5) Despite huge changes in Cleveland’s automobile transportation connections and suffering through a major necessary change in its highways, Cleveland commerce has maintained and thrived. Yes, there have been major headaches but rarely causing time consuming tie-ups like in Chicago or New York or Washington or Los Angeles. Cleveland residents should be proud of the fact that commerce is rarely withered by our highways and 2 hour commutes. I have been in many cities and it is one of the easiest to both navigate and arrive on time.
6) Ignoring sports for the moment, Cleveland can brag about huge assets in the entertainment industry with our emerging movie making presence, the Theater district, the Cleveland Orchestra, Blossom Music Center, as well as being the home of Rock and Roll. Our cultural assets are all reasonably impressive with quality museums and access to the arts.
7) Being a Midwest community Cleveland can honestly say that it has great places to live and great places to raise a family. Despite our struggles with the Cleveland School District, suburban schools are of very high quality and we have every reason to believe the inner city districts will continue to improve. We have multiple colleges and universities within miles of Cleveland and in Cleveland. Our medical school at Case Western Reserve is one of the best in the country.
8) All around Cleveland are huge agricultural regions with fresh food available throughout the growing season. Tropical foods and seafood need shipped in but much of what we eat can be grown or produced locally. Drive outside Cleveland or a suburb and see how long it takes you to reach miles and miles of farms. It is not long.
9) Avoiding professional sports for the moment, there is no doubt that athletes and athletic events thrive in Cleveland. We have some of the best high school sports events in the country and our college events, although on a more minor scale, are top notch as well. Just ask any Mount Union supporter, whose university is only a little more than an hour away. A normal commute time in Chicago.
10) Finally in my top 10 is Cleveland professional sports!!! And, although I blog about this topic most often, I admit that the luster of Cleveland professional sports in this article is best positioned to simply say that we have three professional sports franchises. This is the one area where other cities can certainly say that they have greater quality as well as in some cases quantity of professional sports. The sad thing is that this is one of the most visible pieces and projects a shadow over Cleveland that is neither deserved nor accurate.
There was a reason why Cleveland was one of the greatest cities in early industrial America. The resources and advantages I have outlined here are many of those reasons. Rapid transportation and a digital society have seemed to wipe out the advantages so desperately sought by our ancestors. But, when you actually look at this logically and not in the squalid light that outsider’s project, you see a fine place to live, a fine place to love, and a fine place to support. No corporate decision or sport’s franchise ineptitude can change that fact. Stay classy Cleveland (as a great newscaster might say) and never forget that we have much more to be proud of than to decry.
2013 is a hope and a prayer. 2014 CAN be very good.
What an interesting phenomenon we have in Northeast Ohio? The Indians are actually playing meaningful games (and losing unfortunately) and the Browns have not even started. Yet, all the blogging and talk centers around the Browns and the Indians are just the Indians. There are some exceptions for sure, but that is basically what is happening now. Some say that is because this is “Browns Country” and the Indians are a distant second or even third. While that may be true, I feel that the main reason why the fans around the city of Cleveland always talk about the next shiny new season is that it hasn’t blown up in their faces yet. We all agree that Cleveland has a broken and beaten fan base. We all agree that the next team up MUST be better to justify our fervent cheering and adoration. But that might just be why the best Cleveland fan blog is probably “Waiting for Next Year”. We are ALWAYS waiting for next year.
So, with that realization firmly in my soul, this blog is an attempt to take that annual Cleveland ritual to a new level. Let’s start to talk about next year and the Tribe while we are still fighting with the slim hope 2013 could end with a playoff run. My crystal ball is showing nothing but dark clouds for the end of the 2013 season even if we make one of the 2013 “Indian Runs” as we have done every time playoff hopes appear to be dashed. Any run that is coming, if it even comes, will be too little and way too late.
The Indians have much to build on from 2013. They showed resiliency, toughness, good chemistry, and have players emerging. The team has a top flight manager in Terry Francona. Any Cleveland fan who doesn’t know that is a fan just too traumatized to be objective. I can’t blame them but that doesn’t mean I need to agree. And, as much as I have fried the Indians FO and ownership in the past, they made a major off-season attempt to improve the team. More importantly, they did it logically and effectively despite the big misses with Reynolds and Myers. Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer provided excellent insight and analysis of those “one year deals” in his article from late last night. The quotes from Mark Shapiro make it clear that the Indians have a rational view of these one year deals and what they can accomplish and what they cannot be expected to accomplish.
A positive surprise from the 2013 season thus far has been the progression of our starting pitching. There is no question that we have seen Masterson improve his consistency, Jimenez almost look like a real pitcher, Kluber make a huge step forward, McAllister take a small step forward, Kasmir prove that he can still pitch (but not a full season yet), Salazar emerge as a viable option for 2014, and Bauer take a step further back. That is 6 pitchers who could start for many other teams and one that could emerge. It gives the Indians much more to build from than we thought possible at the start of 2013.
Our battered bullpen has shown flashes of good pitching but really misses Pestano and, if Perez is gone as many think, will be very difficult to form into a team strength for 2014. The bullpen could be a major challenge. One bright light is the pitching of Carrasco in relief. He is a young man made for the bullpen. Don’t think, just pitch. Save your nasty streak for the pen. Man up and come at them. Carrasco can do just that and I hope they keep him in that role. He has the ability to be a decent late inning reliever or, at worst, a solid long man. Now this goes against the basic logic of allowing a young pitcher with power stuff to languish in the bullpen. But that role fits his mentality and approach perfectly. He needs to stay there at least for next season. If his maturity improves, maybe he can transition back as a starter in a year or two. We do have some pretty solid relievers in Perez, Allen, and Smith. If Pestano can find himself, there is a fourth pitcher. As mentioned earlier, Carrasco could be a fifth. The pile of pitchers remaining might account for a couple more. If Perez is traded, subtract one. If Pestano can not come back, subtract another. Anyway, you get the picture. It is not a pretty sight for what many (unfortunately not myself) saw as the strength of the team in 2013. What we wouldn’t give for a Paul Assenmacher reincarnation in 2014? That is, of course, the biggest need for the 2014 bullpen.
The defense has been a major disappointment in my opinion. It has cost us several games and made many others much more difficult than they should have been. It has extended innings, made our pitchers struggle unnecessarily, and made fans cringe with irritation. It is not usually mentioned when you discuss the failures on this team, but it is a big part of why the Indians probably won’t make the playoffs in 2013. The major difficulties on the defensive side have been at shortstop, third base, catcher, right field, and to a lesser extent first base.
Shortstop must be fixed with a player change. I love ACab’s determination, fire, and heart. He has shown a lack of effort at times that is mainly tied to his almost historical rough patch at the plate both based on execution and bad luck. But, overall, it is because he just isn’t a reliable fielder and has very limited range. He can make highlight reel plays but that just isn’t enough.
How to fix third base is anyone’s guess? Again, it probably will take a personnel change but that may not come in 2014. It all depends on how the Tribe FO approaches the off-season.
Catcher can be fixed with Gomes getting the majority of the time behind the plate and that is likely to happen in 2014. I am not giving up on Santana as a catcher altogether but maybe he is better as a DH/first base/backup catcher.
Right field is a tough one because the player the Indians have had out there is known for his defense. Stubbs has had a rough time taking effective routes to the balls both behind him, in front of him and even in the gaps. His arm is amazing but that doesn’t make up entirely for the defensive difficulties. If Stubbs is retained (and that is a big if), just another year out there might make the difference. But, honestly, I have seen no objective improvement as the year has progressed.
First base hasn’t been as bad as it has been inconsistent. I feel that a first baseman must be extremely reliable picking the ball at first. It elevates the defense at all levels. By using such a wide group of players at the position, I think it has led to some inconsistent play. This could be easily fixed but I am not sure how based on the current team composition. To take advantage of what we have, it appears we need to rotate the first base position.
Another disappointment has been some uncharacteristic defensive lapses by Michael Bourn. I am attributing that entirely to moving to a new league with new parks and new hitters. I am not concerned at all about Michael Bourn in center field. Kipnis has also had a few rough stretches but overall is solid defensively. Michael Brantley has been nothing short of spectacular. He is now a gold glove caliber left fielder and has a dangerous and accurate arm. At least we have two gold glove equivalent players (Brantley and Bourn). That is better than zero. I think Yan Gomes might be a third in time. We will see.
I saved the offense/hitting for last because it has, more than any other area, held the Indians back in 2013. If this isn’t corrected for 2014, we have no chance to compete with the “big boys” in the American League. Our new additions have all underperformed and pressed and disappointed. Bourn is the least disappointing of the bunch but even he has not done what could have been expected at the plate and on the bases. Swisher never was a star so to expect him to blossom into a star by signing with Indians was kind of silly. But, even when compared to what could have reasonably been expected, Swisher has underperformed. Santana has underperformed but you begin to wonder if that is where he will stay. Brantley has not underperformed but has hit a very rough stretch of his own and the average and clutch hitting is dropping. Stubbs has been about as might be expected and that is not good at the plate. Cabrera has severely underperformed with one of his worst seasons as a professional at the plate. Kipnis has been solid but also streaky. Chisenhall has been pathetic overall. Gomes has stepped up and looks to be a top level player moving forward. Reynolds was awesome for 6 weeks and was never seen again. Aviles and Raburn have been solid and Raburn has overperformed compared to lifetime stats. Giambi was as expected. Interesting. Some big hits. Some home runs. But way way past his prime. When you read this paragraph closely it all comes together. The Tribe has had a terrible offensive showing for a team that should have been more consistent and certainly more potent.
So where does this leave the Indians in 2013 and how do they make 2014 special? For 2013, the Indians had very subpar hitting, subpar fielding, and above expectation pitching. This is another clear demonstration of the importance of pitching in baseball. The Indians are still in the wild-card chase (albeit barely) with one month of the season to go. That is entirely based on the pitching performances from the starters and, to a lesser extent, the bullpen. Without that improvement, the team would have been well below .500 right now and reaching for the bottom of the division. So that is why there should be optimism for 2014! We now have a pitching base to work from but how we use and extend that base going forward will depend on key strategic and financial decisions from Antonetti, Shapiro, and the Dolan family. Those decisions will be more important than any other over this winter. That being said, the Indians MUST change their shortstop (even if it means using Aviles as a stop gap), they must find a middle of the order hitter who can hit for a high average and OPS, they must use Gomes as the everyday catcher, and the veterans we signed this past off season must produce. Without each of those things, our lack of a true ACE starter and what could be a shaky bullpen will come back to haunt the Tribe in 2014.
In future blogs I will look at the current roster and options the Indians have for this off season. I think that they really can make a legitimate run in 2014 with some good strategic decisions and extending the roster budget by somewhere in the range of 10 million. I realize that this last point will be hard for the Dolans to approve given the lackluster response to this year’s team. But if they decide to “Pay Forward” just one more time, I honestly feel that they will be rewarded with far superior attendance and a better revenue stream. Not to mention a legitimate championship caliber team.
