The Cavs are probably red hot on the phone The beauty of this blog is that I have absolutely NO inside information and no sources and no special powers. But I probably know as much about what the Cavs are doing right now and going to do as anyone else on the web. So, after reading extensively and analyzing the analysts, I believe as many that the Cavs are trying desperately to move the first pick in this draft probably for a veteran and a pick(s) either in 2013 or more likely 2014. All Cavs fans must realize that this is a monumental task and not likely to be a successful exercise. No one wants to give away 2014 picks and even 2013 picks are not moving as easily as some might have thought.
One thing that does concern me is the Cavs apparent efforts to even move up higher to get Karasev. I think he is a real project because of his lack of athleticism and his poor defensive mobility. Think we would be making a big mistake if we try so hard to get him that we mess up this draft and future drafts. Or trade ANY of our core players doing it. So I disagree strongly with that strategy because I see Karasev as a role player as a spot up shooter and good offensive threat because he is also a good passer. But a HUGE defensive liability and we just can not afford that at the 3 position in the NBA. He will never be a starter in the NBA in my view. If we were doing this to get Clay Thompson in past drafts, then I would have been fine with it. And I advocated that but Cavs really couldn’t pull it off for obvious reasons.
As I said in my Len and McLemore posts, I am actually confident the Cavs can select the right player with pick number one. There is no consensus but the Cavs do their homework. So if we take Len or McLemore or Noel or Oladepo or Porter etc.; I am OK with it. However, be aware that, if we take Noel who has the best analytic ratings and upside, he might be picked to be traded.
I will not be able to post easily tonight but I will be on twitter as @Kirklob or @Cwins_jim. I still can’t get traction on my CWins handle so I have kept @Kirklob for the time being.
Alex Len brings many positive things Now I certainly do not know if the Cavs will pick Alex Len with the first pick in the NBA draft tomorrow night. In fact, I don’t even know if the Cavs will have the first pick in tomorrow’s draft. But I do know one thing, Chris Grant has shown me a great deal of skill and courage in his last two drafts and I have confidence. Although it is odd to think of anyone at ESPN who would have anything nice to say about anything related to the Cavs, Chad Ford agrees. He has been very clear that he considers Grant a top GM and makes good trades and draft picks. He has done nothing to shake my belief in him during this rebuilding process including hiring Byron Scott and rehiring Mike Brown. So, if the Cavs pick Alex Len with the first pick in this year’s NBA draft, I am just fine. I won’t be screaming at the TV or acting like the world has just ended. I will be content in knowing that the person making that decision has done a ton more research and has a good track record of finding talent. I will be supportive and root for him to succeed.
That all being said, I happen to like Len as the first pick in this draft. The argument against him is his lack of intensity/toughness and his lack of a dynamic skill that transcends. Noel, another very likely first pick, has the dynamic skill of shot blocking and lightning quick hands on defense. If he can get bigger, he should be a defensive force. But Len already has decent size at 7’1″ and a nearly 7’4″ wingspan at 255 pounds. He is still very quick at that weight and could add more without losing quickness based on his broader shoulders. His hands are not as dynamic on the defensive end but they are very soft for catching lobs and passes. Also, I was very impressed by the video I watched showing his foot quickness and lateral movement on defense. He could actually pick up the guard on a pick and roll and stay in front reasonably well.
Len finishes strong despite his knock of not enough toughness. He has an explosive leap and returns the ball in a dunk after a rebound very quickly. An essential trait for an NBA big. Some big men, even 7 footers, play below the rim. Len is not one of them. He plays above the rim and enjoys it up there (also important in the NBA). Like many “Euro” bigs, he has good form on his jump shot and releases from a high point. Not easy to block. His jump shot is not polished at this point, but the fundamentals are there and he can easily develop the ability to receive the pick and pop. He already has the hands and ability to finish the pick and roll.
Playing with his back to the basket is not his strong suit at this point but he will have Potapenko and Ilgauskas to help him with that and the adjustment to the NBA. Another skill that can be improved over time with hard work. He does have the hands and leaping ability to develop some “go to” back to the basket moves such as a jump hook. Right now he almost exclusively goes over his left shoulder and that will need to change. NBA defenders will cover that very easily unless he can go both ways.
His shot blocking ability is already decent, but not elite. That is another knock on him vs Noel who has that elite ability. However, if he is already good at shot blocking and plays above the rim, this is another skill that can be developed. Probably all of these things that need to develop are reasons NBA analysts are not as high on Len as the Cavs might be. However, another good trait is that Len recognizes his need to develop and improve. His interviews have clearly indicated his desire to improve and his recognition that he can get much better. Not to mention his ability to adopt an entirely new language and seemingly master it so quickly.
Because of his skills that can be developed, I feel that he has sufficient upside to be a top NBA pick. In almost any other year, he would not be considered at the top pick. But this is one year where even experts strongly disagree about who the Cavs should take. In fact, I do not remember any recent year where so many different players have been tabbed as the best pick in this draft. If you ask six experts, you might even get six different players. That is why the Cavs have and should consider trading out of the pick but also why it is unlikely they will be able to trade it.
So CG, if you really feel that Alex Len is the best player in this draft, be my guest. I will not even try to object. But the NBA and I will be watching very closely to see if this draft defines you as the top GM I think you are or as just another clown in the circus. As a Cavs fan, I’ll be rooting for ya…..
Although the past two Indian games have not been things of beauty. they have been wins. When you are struggling as much as the Tribe, you will take wins whenever you can get them.
I do like the quality of the at bats now and have more confidence in our hitting. The starting pitching has also been better with cracks remaining in the Cleveland bullpen. The team has remained aggressive and the baserunning better despite some runners being thrown out. So, even though I do not see dramatic improvement leading to the wins, I can see signs of the team beginning to relax and become productive again.
The home stand is critical to see if the Indians can sustain some momentum or begin to falter again. I am cautiously optimistic that this is the beginning of a much better stretch of baseball for the Tribe. What do you think?
Cavs and McLemore Rumors will abound This post is one of more frequent short posts on www.clevelandwins.com that you will see going forward. Although I favor longer reasoned posts, this format allows me to throw an opinion out there for the readers to think about.
Chris Grant is a very astute player of the smoke screen game by not allowing the Cavs full opinion to be known outside of the confines of the Q offices. This skill will be particularly useful this year when no one dominant player seems to be available at pick #1. Even if the Cavs hold Nerlens Noel near to their hearts, they would be wise to allow some reporter types to catch wind of the fact that they are seriously considering Ben McLemore.
Right now the only major mock draft that has the Cavs taking McLemore is www.nbadraft.net. Personally, I think the odds that the Cavs actually take McLemore are far greater than the percentage of draft mocks predicting it. Also, and I might be wrong on this, I think that more teams will pick up the phone and call the Cavs about the first pick if they think Cleveland is preparing to take the Kansas shooting guard. The health questions surrounding Noel and Len are substantial going into the draft. Even if a team was really sold on Noel, they would think twice about pitching a deal to the Cavs because of the cloud over his immediate future. The same cannot be said about McLemore who is not suffering major health issues and is looked upon as a possible 20 PPG scorer in the NBA.
The real beauty of this is that, no matter which player might be desired by another lottery team, it is best if the Cavs keep them guessing as long as possible. That will maximize the possibility of some team falling in love with one of them and come to the Cavs offering gifts. Knowing the history of the NBA draft, my guess is that the Cavs will be forced to keep the pick anyway and use it. In fact, that might even be their preference. If they keep the pick, five names will seem to move in and out of favor with the Cavs. Those players are Noel, McLemore, Len, Porter and Oladipo. Of those five, Noel and McLemore will be mentioned most often and are the most realistic pics.
I wouldn’t want to bet on Grant’s move in this situation. Despite the vast majority opinion picking Noel for the Cavs, keep an eye on McLemore going forward. Even if a smokescreen, his name will start popping up more and more in my opinion.
There are many options that the Cleveland Cavs GM Chris Grant has this off-season and some difficult decisions. There has been a stated desire to add some veteran help for this team and get them playoff ready in 2013-14. Grant has consistently shown a preference to add talent via the draft and, if needed, trades. Either because of a perceived inability of Cleveland to attract free agents or simply Grant’s preference, most have speculated that the Cavs will be forced to add that veteran help by a trade. Our pieces to trade are certainly limited and, in speculation, Dion Waiters name has surfaced from time to time.
My thoughts on this possibility are clear. Trade Dion Waiters at your peril. I say this knowing that, except for Kyrie Irving, there are no untouchable players on the current Cavs team. So, if the trade were clearly tilted in our favor, Dion could be included. My warning is a result of my visual analysis of Waiters, the statistics he compiled this year compared to other rookies, and what I have heard about Waiters this off-season. I think that Waiters has the ability and the toughness to be a dynamic All-Star talent in the years to come. It might not be next year, but I believe it will happen soon. At first I kind of scoffed at the speculation that Waiters looked a bit like a young Dwayne Wade. I now think that comparison is at least possible to discuss if still unlikely.
As I watched Waiters last year, he came in out of shape to the Summer League and then was injured. Although this was mostly his fault, it set him back considerably. As the season started, he was in fairly good shape but was still behind. As the season progressed, when healthy, he showed clearly why he was the fourth pick in the draft and deserved to be the fourth pick. His offensive game is dynamic and almost no single defender can stay in front of him off the dribble. That places enormous pressure on the defense and makes him a force even before he has refined his game. He forced too many drives last year looking for fouls but seemed to learn that the better approach was finding a way to avoid the defense and make the shot. I think he did get some “rookie” treatment last year on his drives but that should even out as he proves his ability to the officials.
Although Waiters was a bit prone to turnovers in his rookie year, he showed an excellent handle and can certainly provide point guard minutes as a backup to Kyrie if we do not obtain a high level back-up point guard. Dion will always have some questions about his three point shooting, but I certainly think it will develop over 31% and will likely end up around 38% if he works hard. As long as he realizes that the three point shot is not the key part of his offensive skill set, he will only get better as an offensive player. He may very well turn out to be the most accomplished offensive player of the 2012 draft class and may be already.
Something not really discussed when talking about Waiters is his defensive potential. In the few times he really put the effort needed on the defensive end, he was a real pest with a decent ability to steal the ball and disrupt the offense. In fact, as I analyze his lateral quickness, I think he has all the tools to be an excellent defender. The key to defense, as everyone knows, is consistent effort and focus. Most rookies don’t have the mindset to defend as hard as they play offense. Dion, unfortunately, fell into that category. But he possesses the toughness, quick hands, solid frame and lateral quickness to be a good defender. I believe that, under Mike Brown, he will begin to show the focus to be a top defender. If so, his stature as a pro will rise accordingly.
In addition to my observations above, Tristan Thompson recently related that Waiters was working extremely hard this off season. I would be shocked if he came into camp out of shape this year. In fact, I expect him to be ready to have an immediate impact on the Cavs next year. One far in excess of his impact last year. If Thompson was being completely honest, I can’t wait to see Dion this summer.
When I correlate my observations with the statistics of the top rookies last year, Waiters compares very favorably despite his injuries and slow start. Dion had the absolutely best points per game average when his points were extended out to a 36 minutes per game total. As I looked over the stats of the top rookies from last year, here is what I found:
As you can see, there is more than idle speculation to support Waiters future potential. The stats also imply that Dion does play like a true “combo guard” as some of his stats are closer to Lillard than anyone else on the list. These numbers were generated despite the challenges faced by Waiters during his first year. I absolutely want to see what Dion can become as a Cavalier and not as an ex-Cavalier. The Cavs trade Dion Waiters at their peril. I would hate to be Chris Grant during the years going forward watching Waiters emerge as a star for another team.
