CLEVELAND WINS !

Just a brief final note on my series on the Indians and their attendance and how it relates to the near term future of the team. I was honored by WFNY with a reference to my blog series in the While We’re Waiting (WWW) section today. I appreciate Kirk Lammers reference to the series even though he honestly stated that he didn’t agree with all my points. That is the reason I am adding this brief seventh and final installment in the series.

The beauty of that reference in WFNY is that it not only helped expose many people to something I spent considerable time creating. But it also allows me to say this tonight. I am completely cool with people not agreeing with me because I am not 100% convinced I believe myself in all of the points I made in that series. That is what makes blogging one of the most rapidly growing communication tools today. It allows an expression of thought from someone other than a professional to be heard and then be followed by debate and dialogue.

The main reason for the series was to challenge widely held views about the Cleveland Indians failure at the gate (Brown’s town, bad economy, baseball disinterest, etc.) At the same time I wanted to emphasize the business principle that you shouldn’t blame your customers for a failing business. You should look in the mirror and find out what you can do to change your customer’s behavior. ALL good businesses reinvent themselves to adjust to the customer. Bad businesses cry about how the customer just “doesn’t understand their greatness” and are doomed to failure.

I personally don’t want the Dolans or the Indians to fail. So, I simply said that they need to improve the talent on the field (especially the hitting) and the fans will likely follow. Now I may be wrong but what other viable business plan can you think of that will increase attendance? The only other option is essentially giving up and calling the baseball fans of Cleveland a lost cause. For a lifelong fan, that is simply unacceptable.

So I appreciate that many will disagree and I respect that completely. I hope I have made some of you think and question a few of the widely held “theories” about shrinking Indians attendance.  GO TRIBE !!!! Thanks for listening.

I will take one final stab at my critics who still cling to the view that the Indians attendance problem is caused by the people of Cleveland and not a failed business plan. My latest debate was with a good blogger who felt the attendance shortfalls reflected the population decline in the greater Cleveland area.

While I admit that Detroit and Cleveland have not increased population in their greater metropolitan areas over the past 13 years, it has not been like there is a mass exodus out of either metro area. Based on the US Census Bureau actual count and estimates over the past three years, the Cleveland Metro area started at about 2,148,143 and ended the span from 2000 to 2014 at about 2,064,295. This translates to an 83,848 population loss or 3.9% over 14 years. Detroit has lost 157,574 or 3.54%. It is certainly hard to fathom that a loss of about 84,000 people over 14 years is accounting for a 24% attendance drop over the past 4 years. So yet another belief or “excuse” is debunked by facts.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, baseball and all sports are part of the entertainment industry. The customers will respond to perceptions and reality. The customers definitely respond to talent. Any entertainment company will do whatever it takes to get talent. It is that talent that drives revenue and profit. To blame the customers for not showing up to your entertainment product seems rather counterproductive to me. Plus, it stops you from improving the product in order to turn around your business.

So could we please dispense once and for all with the continual excuses for the Dolans. They knew what they were buying when they put up the money. Now they are in a favorable position to make it work but it will take a considerable additional investment not matched by revenue to make this happen. All owners of entertainment companies need to do this from time to time unless they are extremely fortunate. Almost every MLB team needs to do this and can’t wait for matching fan attendance to do it. The Kansas City Royals have increased their salaries over the past 4 years from about 35 million to about 89 million and had virtually no increase in attendance until this year and it will be about 160,000 greater.

My point is that the Dolans need to look in the mirror and recognize that the current Indians team is pretty darn good but NOT good enough. They tried to really spend when they sold their TV station but swung and missed with Swisher. They need to bury that mistake and do it again. It is almost certain they will not do it, but I am hopeful that they will see the need and jump in again. There is no homegrown substitute for what the Indians need to really compete. That is a power, high average middle of the order stick.

I suggested Victor Martinez because he will be a free agent, plays for our primary competitor, has expressed interest in coming back to Cleveland, and fits our need perfectly. He also is a tremendous competitor and clutch hitter. Finally, he is an ex-Indian who was loved while here. The Indian fans have shown great interest in and have come out to see great ex-Indians return. It would be excellent from a PR standpoint and completely dispel the rumor that the Dolans won’t spend when the time is right.

However, this move would be very risky with high reward. Victor will be 36 years old by the beginning of next season. He has had some injury problems through the years. He would best be used as a DH but still plays first base fairly well. He virtually negates any benefit of Swisher unless Swisher can play right field. Finally, he will cost us a ton over several years and the latter years of the contract might be a poor investment. So, if we were sure Victor would have 4 years like this year, it is really a no brainer despite the cost. But that, of course, is not possible to know.

Knowing the Indians, they would prefer to find a one year player with warts like Nelsen Cruz. Baltimore’s investment in Cruz is definitely paying off. But that is also risky because you can end up with a Mark Reynolds instead. Those players are hard to find. Even with his age, Victor would be a far better risk.

Trades to accomplish the same result are also possible but we would have to give up a ton to get a younger player with Victor’s punch and average. So I am open to any and all possibilities to get the job done but I am not compromising on what I feel the Indians need. It is their only legitimate chance to really contend and get the fans revved up and interested again. The Indians pitching has the potential to be special, but the team must find a way to have fewer games where they score 3 runs or less.

I feel a substantially increased investment is necessary for the next two years to provide a true window to succeed and improve attendance. As Swisher’s and Borne’s contracts expire, they should not be replaced. We should have enough young players to fill those gaps by then. So, in two years, about 25 million will come off the payroll. Dolan should set up a business plan to severely deficit spend for two years and then get the payroll down in 2017.

I hope you have enjoyed this series on the Indians. It was the product of a lot of research and thought. I understand the final recommendation is kind of simple, but I think a major addition is needed. The team is set up overall to win with that addition. Whether this would succeed to peak the interest of the Cleveland fans, only time would tell. But I can assure you that doing nothing or very little will NOT result in a significant increase in attendance. The deficits created in that scenario might be deadly to the Dolan ownership and the Cleveland Indians franchise.

 

Although I think any speculation that the Indians might move or abandon Cleveland is quite unrealistic, I do not think it is unrealistic to think that this is a critical juncture for the Dolan ownership of the Tribe. I spent 4 installments in this series to try and explain to everyone why local economics, population, sports popularity or other sports competition is NOT the reason for the declining attendance. There is NO credible evidence to support these theories other than trying to absolve the current Indians management or ownership from culpability for a failing business plan.

I have explained why it is failing to the best of my ability by analogy and explanation using real world examples.  The sad thing is that the failure might be primarily and unfairly generated by horrific perceptions of an inability or unwillingness of ownership to make the sacrifices necessary to improve the product toward the goal of a championship. I am not trying to argue that this perception is fair or just. Or that the Dolans are cheap or liars. That would be truly unfair and unsupported. What I am saying is that you can’t blame the customers for a failed business plan. I have discussed this topic with thoughtful and intelligent bloggers and friends with a few still firmly clinging to the theory that the market or the fans are to blame for the failing product. I will further address why the facts do not support such assertions in my final post later this week. But for this post, I will discuss what is right about the current Cleveland Indians, what is wrong, and what should be done to change perceptions and the competitiveness of the team.

The great news is that, in my opinion, there is much more right about this Cleveland Indians baseball team than wrong. And, contrary to what one might believe based on the first 4 posts, I credit the ownership and management for what has been done right. It is why I honestly feel that the “Window is Now”.  I will not recap all the moves that have led to this point, but I will look at the results.

The Indians have one of the best and most respected managers in Major League Baseball. He is steady and thoughtful and honest. I think he must have the respect of his players as well because they sure play hard for him. I have never questioned the heart, drive or determination of the players during Francona’s tenure. I may not always agree with Francona’s moves but it is a tradition to question the manager. He might be one of the best reasons for optimism going forward. And he manages the playing time of the players to keep them sharp better than any manager I have ever seen.

The Indians management with support of ownership have locked up key younger players to extend their contracts beyond their first years of free agency. This is a reversion to the 90s model that fits well with a smaller market team. It helps maintain a core of young players over an extended window. Brantley, Gomes, Kipnis and Santana will be here awhile and many others are under control for between 2-4 years based on their years of service. That includes many pitchers (including Corey Kluber) and middle infielders. This gives the Indians some flexibility to adjust and fill in their weaknesses but probably not in the weakest area.

In fact, if we look at our minor league system, the Indians have a more than adequate stockpile of middle infielders beyond the wave about ready for the big leagues. The stockpile of starting pitchers and outfielders is not as robust but there are still some quality arms advancing. Plus, keep an eye on James Ramsey who was acquired for Justin Masterson. Had the Indians drafted better during the past decade they would not be faced with the need to go outside the organization to improve the roster adequately. Unfortunately, for this “window” I think they should and must look outside their current major league and minor league rosters.

Although Terry Francona handles veteran utility players fantastically, some veteran presence might need to be sacrificed going forward. Names like Mike Aviles (whom I love as a player) and David Murphy and Ryan Rayburn come to mind. Sadly, Nick Swisher comes to mind as well but he has an untradeable contract and it might be a PR nightmare to trade him (especially because we would still need to pay about 80% of his salary if not more.) The Indians need to make room for some additional young players on the active roster and decrease salary in order to make the other moves necessary to take the next step.

One of the biggest difficulties with the current roster is how to attack third base and second base. Lonnie Chisenhall has finally taken great strides in 2014. However, he still has an average glove at best and probably not enough power for third base. Plus, I am not sure he can hit for a high average consistently. Even this year he was white hot and then stone cold before leveling off in the .280s. Jason Kipnis, also one of my favorite players, has looked lost this year and very ineffective at the plate. Plus, we have many options for second base going forward including Jose Ramirez who is a better second baseman than even a shortstop. As hard as it is to consider, the Indians will need to at least explore his trade value or consider a return to the outfield for Kipnis. Again, I am not advocating this per se but it must be considered.

All of a sudden, the Tribe’s starting pitching is young and incredibly effective. It would not be a total mistake to go into next season with a rotation of Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, and House. That would be a very young rotation to contend for a championship, but 2015 might not be that year anyway and they would be much more stabilized after 2015. If they do not supplement that group however with maybe one veteran with a great reputation near the end of his career (as they did with Dennis Martinez and Orel Hershiser), they will be very short on depth with McAllister being the next man up and little else. They have learned enough about their bullpen that the Indians might be able to make little or no change there. Another bullpen option is always a good idea but not mandatory to contend next year.

Defensively the Indians were simply awful and that poor fielding also contributed, in my opinion, to the poor fan acceptance of this team. I have been at the stadium many times when one of those clunker errors occurs. There is a collective groan from the crowd and it sucks the life out of the stadium. Not good to get return customers.  But there is no way to really upgrade that significantly without wholesale changes and I don’t think that would be wise or necessary. The team was in a season long slump defensively and you have to hope next year would be at least noticeably better.

So, except for that league worst or near worst defense, we have a pretty darn good baseball team in Cleveland. However, it is failing at the gate and there is only one way to energize the fan base and increase fan interest going into next year. That would be to find a way to fix the multiseason hole in the middle of our lineup and increase the Indians offensive efficiency. Statistically the Indians score enough runs in total until you add up the horrific number of games where they have scored 3 runs or less. I can’t find the exact number, but it is huge and has been quoted on TV several times. The Indians might win some of those games but a 2-1 game, while great for the baseball purists like myself, doesn’t excite the casual fan base which is what the Indians need to succeed. More importantly, it makes it too easy for the opposing team’s starting pitcher to navigate the middle of our lineup without much fear.

Brantley is a perfect number 3 hitter. He is a tough out in every way. Hits fantastically in the clutch. Has plenty of power for the 3 hole. And hits for a very high average. Carlos Santana has enough power for cleanup by some standards but barely so. Plus, he has way too many holes in his swing to make him a truly feared hitter like Brantley. His batting average is simply not good enough for the 4 hole despite his walk and OBP totals. It doesn’t really help the lineup for the 4th hitter to draw walks and not hit for average. Kipnis was terrible wherever Francona hit him this year and I only hope this is not the real Kipnis. If it is, we are in trouble. Gomes is developing into a true middle of the order hitter for the 5 or 6 hole. I could go on but you can see the picture. The Indians have no one to man the fourth spot in the lineup which is the most critical spot after the #3 hitter (and maybe the leadoff hitter by some standards.)

A feared power bat who hits for a high average in that position would vastly extend the Indians batting order and make it dramatically tougher for the pitcher. Now you are moving Santana or Gomes to the 5th spot and 6th spots. Kipnis can drop to 7th assuming Ramirez maintains his position in the number 2 hole. Then Chisenhall and Murphy (or whomever roams right field) drop to 8th and 9th.

I am certain that if the Dolans would look at this logically and realize it is a hole that hasn’t been filled for years, they would consider giving the go ahead to get that kind of player for next year. Although trades can be considered, there is a hitter out there available that would be willing to come to the Indians without us paying a premium over other teams. I am virtually certain of that because he said that he wanted to finish his career here and his next contract will likely be his last. Plus, he cried when he was traded and never wanted to leave. And he has paid us back many times over for our stupidity by pounding us into oblivion with his buddy Miguel. AND he plays for our direct competitor who is the major obstacle standing in our way to a division championship (the only real way to “make the playoffs”). As you already know, his name is Victor.

In my next installment I will address some of the other theories blaming the city population or the fans for the business failure of the Indians over the past 4 years. And I will explain why, in stark contrast to Paul Hoynes who simply said we now “can’t afford him”, adding Martinez would be an excellent investment and give our team a legitimate chance to contend that everyone could see. Thus increasing interest and attendance while erasing a probably unfair perception of the Indians management and ownership.